Nate Silver: Odds of GOP Senate Takeover Significantly
Down
Nate Silver, founder of the website FiveThirtyEight. (Astrid
Stawiarz/Getty Images) Tuesday, 16 Sep 2014 03:08 PM
By Melanie Batley
The Republican Party's chances of taking control of the
Senate have decreased significantly as the fortunes of Democrats in key states
have surged, says Nate Silver of
FiveThirtyEight.com.
According to the former New York Times statistician, Republican odds stand at 55 percent, a drop from 64 percent just two weeks ago.
"We've never quite settled on the semantics of when to call an election a 'tossup.' A sports bettor or poker player would grimace and probably take a 55-45 edge. But this Senate race is pretty darned close," Silver said on an article on his website.
According to the former New York Times statistician, Republican odds stand at 55 percent, a drop from 64 percent just two weeks ago.
"We've never quite settled on the semantics of when to call an election a 'tossup.' A sports bettor or poker player would grimace and probably take a 55-45 edge. But this Senate race is pretty darned close," Silver said on an article on his website.
Silver's detailed statistical model indicates that Democrats now have a stronger possibility of winning due to changes in the Senate races in Colorado and North Carolina which are currently giving the party an advantage when previously Republicans held the edge.
Silver categorizes the two states as "highly competitive purple states," among which are also Iowa, Michigan, and New Hampshire. All five seats are currently held by Democrats and, with the exception of New Hampshire, it has been in these areas where Democrats have gained ground.
He cited numerous recent polls that have shown a surge for North Carolina Sen. Kay Hagan and Colorado Sen. Mark Udall.
"What's perplexing is that [the Democrat surge in purple states] has happened right as Democrats' position on the generic congressional ballot — probably the best indicator of the nation mood — has deteriorated," he said.
He added that unlike the most recent figures, average historical data from the generic ballot tended to directly correlate to performance of candidates in state-by-state Senate polls.
Silver said the influence of money in those races could be one explanation, citing massive financial advantages for the Democrats in North Carolina and Colorado, along with higher outside spending by Democratic-leaning super PACs.
"Whatever the reason, the GOP's path to a Senate majority is less robust than before."
Researchers Note: (Past Research)
Sunday, September 14, 2014
In the research below we are
encouraged to question everyone, especially the spokesman of any organization. The Spokesman’s position is to present the propaganda that gives a very specific view
for us to see.
Nate Silver
Nate
Silver is the founder of FiveThirtyEight.
Note: FiveThirtyEight
is a publisher for ESPN.
Hearst
Corporation is part owner of ESPN.
William R.
Hearst III is the chairman for the Hearst
Corporation, and a partner emeritus at Kleiner
Perkins Caufield & Byers.
Albert
A. Gore Jr. is a partner at Kleiner
Perkins Caufield & Byers, and the chairman for the Climate Reality Project.
Foundation
to Promote Open Society was a funder for the Climate Reality Project, the International
Rescue Committee, and the Aspen Institute (think tank).
George Soros
was the chairman for the Foundation to Promote Open Society.
Colin
L. Powell is an overseer for the International
Rescue Committee, and a strategic adviser for Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers.
Georgette F.
Bennett is an overseer for the International
Rescue Committee, and a trustee at the Third
Way.
Kay
Hagan is an honorary co-chair for the Third
Way, and the North Carolina Senator.
Mark
Udall is an honorary co-chair for the Third
Way, and the Colorado Senator.
William
M. Daley is a trustee at the Third
Way, a member of the Commercial Club
of Chicago, and was the chief of staff for the Barack Obama administration.
R.
Eden Martin is the president of the Commercial
Club of Chicago, and counsel at Sidley
Austin LLP.
Michelle
Obama was a lawyer at Sidley Austin
LLP.
Barack
Obama was an intern at Sidley Austin
LLP.
Newton
N. Minow is a senior counsel at Sidley
Austin LLP, and a member of the Commercial
Club of Chicago.
Commercial Club of Chicago, Members Directory A-Z (Past
Research)
Tuesday, December 17, 2013
James S.
Crown is a member of the Commercial Club of Chicago, and a trustee
at the Aspen Institute (think tank).
Lester Crown
is a member of the Commercial Club of Chicago, and was a lifetime
trustee at the Aspen Institute (think tank).
Michael K. Powell
is a trustee at the Aspen Institute (think tank), and Colin L. Powell’s son.
Colin
L. Powell is Michael K. Powell’s
father, an overseer for the International
Rescue Committee, and a strategic adviser for Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers.
William R.
Hearst III is a partner emeritus at Kleiner
Perkins Caufield & Byers, and
the chairman for the Hearst Corporation.
Hearst
Corporation is part owner of ESPN.
FiveThirtyEight
is a publisher for ESPN.
Nate
Silver is the founder of FiveThirtyEight.
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