World View: Bashar
al-Assad’s Syrian Army Once Again Close to Collapse
by John J. Xenakis 4 Sep 2016
This morning’s key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
·
Turkey sends more tanks into Syria
in ‘New Phase’ of military action
·
Syrian rebels capture 14 villages near Hama in
four days
·
Bashar al-Assad’s Syrian army once again close to
collapse
Turkey sends more tanks into Syria in ‘New Phase’ of
military action
A Turkish tank in Suruc, near the Syrian border, on
Saturday. (AP)
A large number of Turkish tanks crossed the border into
Syria, and many more are massed on the border, ready to cross, in what Turkey
is calling a “new phase” of its military action in Syria.
Turkey’s tanks are supported by thousands of Free Syrian
Army (FSA) rebels who have been fighting both the so-called Islamic State (IS
or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) and the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG). Both
the FSA and the YPG are backed by the US military, even though they are
fighting each other. The US administration favors the YPG because it has been
the major fighting force against ISIS, which the US considers a threat to its
national security.
Last week, US vice president Joe Biden issued a demand to
the Kurdish YPG forces to move back east and remain east of the Euphrates
River. (
“29-Aug-16 World View — US forced to choose between two close allies, as Turks
bomb Kurds in Syria”)
The Syrian Kurds have been the most effective US ally in
fighting ISIS
in Syria, but they have had another major objective — namely to take control of
a region along almost the entire Syria-Turkey border, in order to declare an
independent Kurdish state called Rojava. This plan is anathema to both Turkey
and Syria. Although Turkey’s tanks are nominally fighting ISIS, there’s little
doubt that the principal target is the YPG.
The Kurds now see themselves the victims of betrayal by
the United States, and have vowed to fight to the death to stop Turkey from
“invading the region.” Anadolu
(Turkey) and BBC and
Independent
(London) and Hurriyet
(Ankara)
Syrian rebels capture 14 villages near Hama in four
days
From Tuesday to Friday of the last week, Syria’s anti-regime
rebels conducted the biggest coordinated rebel assault in Hama province since
2014, and seized control at least 14 villages. The rebels came under heavy air
attacks by the air force of Syria’s president Bashar al-Assad, as well as by
Russian warplanes.
Hama province is of strategic importance, because it
connects rebel-controlled Idlib province to Damascus. But it also carries a
great deal of symbolic importance. Hama was the site of some of the first
anti-Assad protests at the beginning of the “Arab Spring” in 2011. At that
time, al-Assad responded to the peaceful protests by shelling civilian
neighborhoods and shooting protestors on sight.
But it was also the site of the bloodiest massacre by
al-Assad’s father Hafez al-Assad in the Syrian civil war. Syria’s last
generational crisis war was the civil war that climaxed in 1982 with the
massacre at Hama. There was a massive uprising of the 400,000 mostly Sunni
citizens of Hama against Syria’s president Hafez al-Assad, the current
president’s father. In February, 1982, al-Assad turned the town to rubble,
40,000 deaths and 100,000 expelled. Hama stands as a defining moment in the
Middle East. It is regarded as perhaps the single deadliest act by any Arab
government against its own people in the modern Middle East. But once the Hama
was destroyed, the anti-government movement against Hafaz al-Assad pretty much
ended, as that was the climax of the generational crisis civil war.
But today’s war is not a generational crisis
war, but an Awakening era war, and the rules are different. Today’s anti-Assad
rebels still have fresh memories, either personally or through their parents,
of the 1982 massacre, and they’re not going to allow anything like that to stop
them this time.
The larger picture is that the rebel assault on Hama has
a strategic objective of forcing al-Assad to split his forces between Hama and
Aleppo, the latter being the city where Syrian forces have been trying to take
control for months. (
“8-Aug-16 World View — Syrian regime apparently suffers major setback in
Aleppo”) The regime declared several times that victory was at hand,
only to be defeated each time. Al-Jazeera and Syria:Direct
(Lebanon) and Al-Jazeera
(5-July-2011)
Bashar al-Assad’s Syrian army once again close to
collapse
During 2015, we repeatedly reported that the army of
Syria’s president Bashar al-Assad was near collapse, after al-Assad’s army
suffered a number of significant major setbacks, and was being crippled by
massive desertions. (
“8-Apr-15 World View — Bashar al-Assad’s Syria army showing signs of collapse”)
Al-Assad was saved by the massive intervention by Russia,
Iran and Hezbollah. However, al-Assad’s government is rotten to the core, and
the Russian military intervention appears to have save al-Assad only
temporarily, as the army is once again showing signs of collapse.
Mideast expert Scott Lucas, a professor at Birmingham
University, described the situation in an interview on RFI. He said
that the attack on Hama has forced al-Assad to split his forces between Hama
and Aleppo (my transcription):
What we’ve seen in the past week does raise the prospect
he may lose Hama city, which is the 4th largest city in Syria.
The majority of the local population is against the
regime there, and it’s really in effect been an occupying force in Hama since
early in the uprising.
[The regime is] trying to get back into this artillery
base in Aleppo, and they’re putting up wave after wave of attacks to be able to
do this, and they may be able to claim this one victory, but the problem is
that they’ve got to this on multiple fronts now. They not only have to be able
to secure areas on the Aleppo front, they’ve got to be able to push the rebels
back on the Hama front.
We knew this a year ago. At the time when the rebels took
the entire Idlib province up in the northwest, we knew that there were manpower
problems, because president Assad came out and said it. He sort of warned his
population almost in a sense that the military was on the point of collapse.
What saved the regime at that point was this massive
intervention by the Russians, in terms of the aerial operations, in combination
with a sharp escalation of Iranian and Hezbollah support, including not only
Iranian units, but Iranian-led foreign militias, especially the use of Iraqis
and Afghan militias. …
We’re now looking at a de facto partitioning of
the country. You’re going to have Kurdish areas of Syria up in the northeast,
because the Kurds have pushed back the Islamic State. The rebels who now of
course have Turkish support will hold parts of the north and the northwest. The
Assad regime, which can no longer hold a national government, will try to hold
the line from the Mediterranean through Homs to Damascus, and president Assad
will hope to continue to remain in power as president of not all of Syria but
at least part of it.
Other reports indicate a crashing economy with surging inflation,
and growing infighting stemming from massive corruption. War On
The Rocks
Syria
Bashar al-Assad
is the president of Syria, supporting
the Syrian Electronic Army a hacker
group, and permitted the rise of the Islamic
State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIS) in Syria.
Note: Syrian Electronic
Army reportedly hacked the Human
Rights Watch, Amnesty International,
Al Jazeera, and the BBC.
Open
Society Foundations was a funder for the Human
Rights Watch, the Atlantic Council
of the United States (think tank), Amnesty
International, and the Bill, Hillary
& Chelsea Clinton Foundation.
George
Soros is the founder & chairman for the Open Society Foundations, was the chairman for the Foundation to
Promote Open Society, and a benefactor for the Human Rights Watch.
Foundation
to Promote Open Society was a funder for the Human
Rights Watch, Refugees International,
and Amnesty International.
John J. Studzinski
is a director at the Human Rights Watch,
a director at the Atlantic Council of
the United States (think tank), and was the co-head of investment banking
for the HSBC Holdings plc.
Marc Grossman was a
director at the Atlantic Council of the
United States (think tank), and a U.S. ambassador for Turkey.
Marjorie M.
Scardino is a director at the Atlantic
Council of the United States (think tank), and was the CEO for the Economist Group.
Rona A. Fairhead
is a director at the HSBC Holdings plc,
and a director at the Economist Group.
Dominic Cadbury
was the chairman for the Economist Group,
and is the chancellor for Birmingham
University.
The Economist
is a publication for
the Economist Group.
Mark
Malloch-Brown was a political correspondent for The Economist, the vice chairman for the Refugees International, is a co-chair for the International Crisis Group, and a global board member
for the Open Society Foundations.
George
Soros is a director emeritus at Refugees
International, a board member for the International
Crisis Group, the founder & chairman for the Open Society Foundations, was the chairman for the Foundation to
Promote Open Society, and a benefactor for the Human Rights Watch.
Open
Society Foundations was a funder for the Human Rights Watch, the Atlantic
Council of the United States (think tank), Amnesty International, and the Bill,
Hillary & Chelsea Clinton Foundation.
Foundation
to Promote Open Society was a funder for the Human Rights Watch, Refugees
International, and Amnesty
International.
John J.
Studzinski is a director at the Human
Rights Watch, a director at the Atlantic
Council of the United States (think tank), and was the co-head of
investment banking for the HSBC Holdings
plc.
Syrian
Electronic Army reportedly hacked the Human
Rights Watch, Amnesty International,
Al Jazeera, and the BBC.
Bashar al-Assad
is supporting the Syrian Electronic Army
a hacker group, the president of Syria,
and permitted the rise of the Islamic
State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIS) in Syria.
J. Dudley Fishburn
is a director at the HSBC Holdings plc,
and was an executive editor at The
Economist.
The Economist
is a publication for the Economist Group.
Dominic Cadbury
was the chairman for the Economist Group,
and is the chancellor for Birmingham
University.
Lynn
Forester de Rothschild is a director at the Economist Group, a friend of Hillary
Rodham Clinton, a fundraiser for the 2016
Hillary Rodham Clinton presidential campaign, and was a funder for the Bill, Hillary & Chelsea Clinton
Foundation.
Hillary Rodham
Clinton is a friend of Lynn Forester
de Rothschild, the candidate for the 2016
Hillary Rodham Clinton presidential campaign, and was a director at the Bill, Hillary & Chelsea Clinton
Foundation.
William J. Clinton
is an adviser for the 2016 Hillary
Rodham Clinton presidential campaign, the founder of the Bill, Hillary & Chelsea Clinton
Foundation, and led team in the 2009
humanitarian mission to North Korea.
Euna
Lee was freed as result of the 2009
humanitarian mission to North Korea, and a journalist for Current TV.
Laura
Ling was freed as result of the 2009
humanitarian mission to North Korea, and is a journalist for Current TV.
Current TV was
acquired Al Jazeera.
Syrian
Electronic Army reportedly hacked Al
Jazeera, the Human Rights Watch,
Amnesty International, and the BBC.
Bashar al-Assad
is supporting the Syrian Electronic Army
a hacker group, the president of Syria,
and permitted the rise of the Islamic
State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIS) in Syria.
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