Paul Krugman insists 'we won't be' in a recession after admitting he was wrong to dismiss inflation concerns (Connecting the Dots: Paul Krugman, Princeton, The Federal Reserve, Soros & his son, Soros Funded Think Tanks, National Bureau of Economic Research, Mikhail Gorbachev, the Communist Party of the Soviet Union & an Orchestrated Crisis)

Paul Krugman insists 'we won't be' in a recession after admitting he was wrong to dismiss inflation concerns (Connecting the Dots: Paul Krugman, Princeton, The Federal Reserve, Soros & his son, Soros Funded Think Tanks, National Bureau of Economic Research, Mikhail Gorbachev, the Communist Party of the Soviet Union & an Orchestrated Crisis)

NYT columnist Paul Krugman famously predicted a 'global recession' following Trump's victory in 2016

THE NEW YORK TIMES Published July 27, 2022 7:14pm EDT

By Joseph A. Wulfsohn | Fox News

https://www.foxnews.com/media/paul-krugman-recession-wrong-inflation

New York Times columnist Paul Krugman expressed confidence that there "won't be" a recession just days after he offered a mea culpa for wrongly dismissing inflation concerns.

In his piece Tuesday attempting to explain what a recession is, Krugman began by acknowledging "there’s a pretty good chance" that data set to be released on Thursday will show the GDP had shrunk for two consecutive quarters, which has long been an indicator of a recession. 

Well, Krugman took a preemptive swipe at the "breathless commentary" that will erupt declaring a recession, telling readers "we won't be."

"That’s not how recessions are defined; more important, it’s not how they should be defined," Krugman wrote. "It’s possible that the people who actually decide whether we’re in a recession… will eventually declare that a recession began in the United States in the first half of this year, although that’s unlikely given other economic data."

Krugman took a page from the White House playbook, which has been pointing to the National Bureau of Economic Research's Business Cycle Dating Committee as the only group that can definitively say the country is in a recession based on a wide variety of factors, not just GDP. 

"So the official definition of a recession is that it is a period that the committee has declared a recession; it’s an expert judgment call, not a formula," Krugman wrote. "So where did the two-quarter thing come from? Part of the answer is that the N.B.E.R. doesn’t make recession calls in real time. For example, while the Great Recession is now considered to have begun in December 2007, the dating committee didn’t make that call until December 2008."

"Two quarters of economic contraction — a downturn sustained enough that it probably isn’t a statistical blip — seems, on the surface, like a reasonable criterion. But it’s not hard to see how it could be deeply misleading, even if the data are correct," he continued. 

The Nobel Prize-winning economist went on to say it would be "foolish" to declare a recession solely based on Thursday's findings despite the extremely high correlation with multiple consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. 

"And what difference would a recession call make, anyway?" Krugman wondered. "What should matter is the state of the economy — which is complicated — not the particular word we use to describe it."

He added, "I’m already hearing rumblings that the [Biden] administration will be applying a double standard if it refuses to accept the 'official' rule that two quarters of negative growth define a recession…. Well, there is no such rule. It’s quite possible that we will in fact experience a recession soon; it’s even possible, although less likely, that one has already started. But there’s no reason to use the R-word this week."

Krugman's high confidence in the U.S. steering clear of a recession came just days after he issued a stunning admission that he was "wrong" to dismiss inflation concerns. 

In November 2021, a column titled "History Says Don't Panic About Inflation" tamped down Carter-era comparisons that were fueled by President Biden's critics as the administration continued pushing a narrative that the surge in prices was merely "transitory" following the economic turmoil sprung from the coronavirus pandemic. 

"Inflation is running considerably hotter than many people, myself included, expected," Krugman said at the time. "What, then, does history teach us about the current inflation spike? One lesson is that brief episodes of overheating don’t necessarily lead to 1970s-type stagflation — 1946-48 didn’t cause long-term inflation… And we really should have some patience: Given what happened in the 1940s, pronouncements that inflation can’t be transitory because it has persisted for a number of months are just silly."

He later told readers, "So yes, that was an ugly inflation report, and we hope that future reports will look better. But people making knee-jerk comparisons with the 1970s and screaming about stagflation are looking at the wrong history. When you look at the right history, it tells you not to panic."

Last week, in a piece titled "I Was Wrong About Inflation," Krugman acknowledged he misjudged the economic climate, relying on post-2008 recession models that he thought applied to the post-COVID economy. 

Krugman famously predicted a global recession just days after Donald Trump was elected president in 2016.

"It really does now look like President Donald J. Trump, and markets are plunging… If the question is when markets will recover, a first-pass answer is never," Krugman wrote in November 2016.

He later warned, "We are very probably looking at a global recession, with no end in sight. I suppose we could get lucky somehow. But on economics, as on everything else, a terrible thing has just happened."

Connecting the Dots:

Paul R. Krugman is an economist at Princeton University and was a consultant for the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

Kathryn A. Hall is a trustee at Princeton University and an Economic Advisory Council member for the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

John F. McDonnell is a benefactor for Princeton University and was the chairman for the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

Alan S. Blinder is a professor at Princeton University, a friend of Ben S. Bernanke and was the vice chairman for the Federal Reserve Board.

Ben S. Bernanke was a professor at Princeton University, the chairman for the Federal Reserve Board, is a friend of Alan S. Blinder and a distinguished fellow at the Brookings Institution (think tank).

Foundation to Promote Open Society was a funder for the Brookings Institution (think tank).

George Soros was the chairman for the Foundation to Promote Open Society and his son is Jonathan Soros.

David H. Romer is a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution (think tank) and a co-director, program in monetary economics for the National Bureau of Economic Research.

Elizabeth E. Bailey is an honorary trustee at the Brookings Institution (think tank) and a director at the National Bureau of Economic Research.

Jonathan Soros is George Soros’s son and a director at the New America Foundation (Think tank).

George Soros is Jonathan Soros’s father and was the chairman for the Foundation to Promote Open Society.

Foundation to Promote Open Society was a funder for the New America Foundation (think tank).

Schmidt Family Foundation was a funder for the New America Foundation (think tank).

Eric E. Schmidt is a co-founder for the Schmidt Family Foundation, the chairman of the New America Foundation (think tank), was a funder for the New America Foundation (think tank) and a trustee at Princeton University.

Elaine Pagels is a professor at Princeton University and a trustee at the Aspen Institute (think tank).

Foundation to Promote Open Society was a funder for the Aspen Institute (think tank).

George Soros was the chairman for the Foundation to Promote Open Society.

Paul A. Volcker was a lifetime trustee at the Aspen Institute (think tank), the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and the chairman for the Federal Reserve Board.

Paul R. Krugman was a consultant for the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and is an economist at Princeton University.

Stephen F. Cohen is a professor emeritus at Princeton University and a friend of Mikhail Gorbachev.

Mikhail Gorbachev is a friend of Stephen F. Cohen, an advisory board member for the Wheelchair Foundation, was the president of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) and the general secretary for the Communist Party of the Soviet Union.

Anna Eleanor Roosevelt is an advisory board member for the Wheelchair Foundation and

the chair for the Roosevelt Institute.

Jonathan Soros is a senior fellow at the Roosevelt Institute, a director at the New America Foundation (Think tank) and George Soros’s son.

Foundation to Promote Open Society was a funder for the Roosevelt Institute and the New America Foundation (Think tank).

George Soros was the chairman for the Foundation to Promote Open Society and is Jonathan Soros’s father.

Schmidt Family Foundation was a funder for the New America Foundation (think tank).

Eric E. Schmidt is a co-founder for the Schmidt Family Foundation, the chairman of the New America Foundation (think tank), was a funder for the New America Foundation (think tank) and a trustee at Princeton University.

Paul R. Krugman is an economist at Princeton University and was a consultant for the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

Resources: Past Research

Stalinist Destroying the United States? Yes! (Past Research on Paul Krugman)

FRIDAY, MARCH 21, 2014

https://thesteadydrip.blogspot.com/2014/03/stalinist-destroying-united-states-yes_21.html

SEIU to Place $15 Min. Wage on San Francisco Ballot (Past Research on the National Bureau of Economic Research)

TUESDAY, APRIL 8, 2014

https://thesteadydrip.blogspot.com/2014/04/seiu-to-place-15-min-wage-on-san.html