50-50 Chance of Recession This Year: Larry Summers (Connecting the Dots: Michael Bloomberg, Larry Summers, ONE Campaign, Breakthrough Energy Coalition, Sheryl Sandberg, Bill Gates & Soros Funding, All Networking)
Newsmax.com
By
Lee Barney | Friday, 14 March 2025 09:53 AM EDT
https://www.newsmax.com/finance/streettalk/larry-summers-recession-tariffs/2025/03/14/id/1202806/
Former
Treasury Secretary Larry Summers sees a 50-50
chance of a recession in 2025 due to President Trump’s tariffs, immigration
policies and federal government layoffs.
“I’d
say there’s a 50-50 chance of a recession starting this year,” Summers told Bloomberg.
“When economic revisions start being revised in a direction, there tends to be
momentum, and all the revisions are going one way, pointing towards less growth
and real uncertainty.”
The
steep decline in the stock market and erosion of consumer confidence are also
indicators of a possible recession, said Summers, who was Treasury Secretary
during the Clinton administration and served as White House Economic Council
director under Obama.
On
Thursday, the S&P 500 declined by 10% from its February record, putting it
in correction territory.
“The
more people are looking for sharp cuts by the Fed, the more they’re judging
that a recession is likely,” said Summers, who now serves on the board of
OpenAI.
Summers
called Trump’s tariffs “confused protectionist policy” because “manufacturing
has trended downwards for 60 years as a share of the economy,” including even
in China, primarily due to automation and assembly lines.
A
better approach to rebuilding U.S. manufacturing and jobs, Summers suggested,
would be to “subsidize outputs rather than raise the price of manufacturing
inputs” via import tariffs. Summers also said it does not make sense to tariff
goods made in Canada and Mexico, which, essentially, are manufacturing partners
to the U.S.
“We
have seen a sea change in perception in the two months since Trump was
inaugurated,” said Summers, who was president of Harvard University from 2001
to 2006. When Trump came into office, “the prevailing view was a very strong
economy, possibly inflation risk, and United States exceptionalism and
outperformance relative to the rest of the world.
“But
the combination of the substantial immigration restrictions, substantial
federal government layoffs, the damage to U.S. competitiveness and U.S.
production done by tariffication, and, above all, a big increase in risk
premiums, have led to sharp reductions in consumer and business spending.”
Summers
slammed Trump’s “steadfastness on tariffs, economic nationalism and vast, wide
interpretation of government” reach for creating market uncertainty.
“Every
time he recommits [to the tariffs], pessimism increases,” Summers said.
Asked
if he agrees with Trump’s focus on strengthening the U.S. economy in the long
term, Summers likened it to the Biden administration’s and the Federal
Reserve’s initial dismissal of the severity of inflation.
“I
don’t think the idea that this is some kind of transition period is going to
work out very well at all,” Summers said.
As
to what investors should pay attention to when deciding how to allocate their
portfolios, Summers pointed to forward-looking data, including business orders,
consumer sentiment, commodity prices and equity analyst forecasts. If downward
revisions in any of these gains momentum, it could be a recession signal,
Summers said.
However,
the economist conceded that Trump’s trade policies could potentially benefit
the U.S., noting: “Studies show that [tariffs] can go either way in terms of
their impact in the short run. But it’s almost always bad over the medium to
long run.
“So
unless there’s a reversal in policy, I would expect this situation to get more
serious.”
Lawrence
(Larry) Summers
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lawrence_Summers
Differences
between the sexes
So
my best guess, to provoke you, of what's behind all of this is that the largest
phenomenon, by far, is the general clash between people's legitimate family
desires and employers' current desire for high power and high intensity, that
in the special case of science and engineering, there are issues of intrinsic
aptitude, and particularly of the variability of aptitude, and that those
considerations are reinforced by what are in fact lesser factors involving
socialization and continuing discrimination. I would like nothing better than
to be proved wrong, because I would like nothing better than for these problems
to be addressable simply by everybody understanding what they are, and working
very hard to address them.[43]
Summers
then went on to discuss approaches to remedying the shortage of women in
high-end science and engineering positions.
This
lunch-time talk drew accusations of sexism and careless scholarship, and an
intense negative response followed, both nationally and at Harvard.[47] Summers
apologized repeatedly.[48] Nevertheless,
the controversy is speculated to have contributed to his resigning his position
as president of Harvard University the following year, as well as costing
Summers the job of Treasury Secretary in Obama's administration.[49]
Summers's
protégée Sheryl Sandberg has defended
him, saying that "Larry has been a true advocate for women throughout his
career" at the World Bank and Treasury. Referring to the lunch talk,
Sandberg said, "What few seem to note is that it is remarkable that he was
giving the speech in the first place – that he cared enough about women's
careers and their trajectory in the fields of math and science to proactively
analyze the issues and talk about what was going wrong
Connecting
the Dots:
Bloomberg News is
a division of Bloomberg LP.
Michael R.
Bloomberg is the founder of Bloomberg LP and a member of
the Breakthrough Energy Coalition.
George Soros is a
member of the Breakthrough Energy Coalition and was the
chairman for the Foundation to Promote Open Society.
Foundation to Promote Open Society was a funder for
the Brookings Institution (think tank).
William H. Gates
III is the founder for the Breakthrough Energy Coalition and
a co-chair for the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Bill
& Melinda Gates Foundation was a funder for the Brookings
Institution (think tank).
Lawrence H.
Summers was a trustee at the Brookings Institution (think
tank), the National Economic Council chairman for the Barack Obama
administration and a director at the ONE Campaign.
Sheryl K.
Sandberg was a trustee at the Brookings Institution (think
tank) and is the COO & director for Facebook.
Mark Zuckerberg is
a co-founder & chairman & CEO for Facebook and a member of
the Breakthrough Energy Coalition.
Michael R. Bloomberg is a member of the Breakthrough Energy Coalition, the founder of Bloomberg LP and an advocate for the ONE Campaign.
Michelle Obama is
an advocate for the ONE Campaign.
Lawrence H.
Summers was a director at the ONE Campaign, a trustee at
the Brookings Institution (think tank) and the National Economic
Council chairman for the Barack Obama administration.
International
Rescue Committee is a partner with the ONE Campaign.
Foundation to Promote Open Society was a funder for International
Rescue Committee and the Brookings Institution (think tank).
George Soros was the chairman
for the Foundation to Promote Open Society and is a member of
the Breakthrough Energy Coalition.
Bill
& Melinda Gates Foundation was a funder for the International
Rescue Committee and the Brookings Institution (think tank).
William H. Gates
III is a co-chair for the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
and the founder for the Breakthrough Energy Coalition.
Mark Zuckerberg is
a member of the Breakthrough Energy Coalition and a co-founder
& chairman & CEO for Facebook.
Michael R.
Bloomberg is a member of the Breakthrough Energy Coalition,
the
founder of Bloomberg LP and an advocate for the ONE Campaign.
Michelle Obama is
an advocate for the ONE Campaign.
Lawrence H.
Summers was a director at the ONE Campaign, a trustee at
the Brookings Institution (think tank) and the National Economic
Council chairman for the Barack Obama administration.
International
Rescue Committee is a partner with the ONE Campaign.
Bill
& Melinda Gates Foundation was a funder for the International
Rescue Committee and the Brookings Institution (think tank).
Foundation to Promote Open Society was a funder
for International Rescue Committee and the Brookings Institution
(think tank).
George Soros was the chairman
for the Foundation to Promote Open Society and is a member of
the Breakthrough Energy Coalition.
Michael R.
Bloomberg is a member of the Breakthrough Energy Coalition,
an advocate for the ONE Campaign and the founder of Bloomberg LP.
Bloomberg News is
a division of Bloomberg LP.
Resources:
Past Research
MSNBC
Closes 2014 In Last Place, Hemorrhaging Viewers (Past
Research on Bloomberg News)
Wednesday,
December 31, 2014
https://thesteadydrip.blogspot.com/2014/12/msnbc-closes-2014-in-last-place.html
Bill
Gates-Funded Climate Group Slashes Staff (Connecting the Dots: Bill Gates, The
Breakthrough Energy Coalition, The Climate Reality Project, The New York Times,
Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers, The World Economic Forum & Soros
Funding, All Networking) (Past Research on Michael
R. Bloomberg & the Breakthrough Energy Coalition)
Wednesday,
March 12, 2025
https://thesteadydrip.blogspot.com/2025/03/bill-gates-funded-climate-group-slashes.html
War
Looms Large over G20 Event as Russia Meets Rivals in Bali (Connecting the Dots:
Lawrence Summers, Timothy Geithner, Michelle Obama, G20, Soros & Henry
Kissinger) (Past Research on Larry Summers)
Thursday,
July 7, 2022
https://thesteadydrip.blogspot.com/2022/07/war-looms-large-over-g20-event-as.html
Bill
Gates: Spoke With Trump, 'Amazing Things' for Global Health (Connecting the
Dot: Bill Gates, The Gates Foundation, Mark Zuckerberg, global health,
Obamacare, FDA, Pfizer, Johnson & Johnson, The Wall Street Journal, 60
Minutes, The Breakthrough Energy Coalition, Facebook & Soros Funding, All
Networking) (Past Research on the Bill &
Melinda Gates Foundation)
Sunday,
January 19, 2025
No comments:
Post a Comment