Sunday, March 16, 2025

50-50 Chance of Recession This Year: Larry Summers (Connecting the Dots: Michael Bloomberg, Larry Summers, ONE Campaign, Breakthrough Energy Coalition, Sheryl Sandberg, Bill Gates & Soros Funding, All Networking)

50-50 Chance of Recession This Year: Larry Summers (Connecting the Dots: Michael Bloomberg, Larry Summers, ONE Campaign, Breakthrough Energy Coalition, Sheryl Sandberg, Bill Gates & Soros Funding, All Networking)

Newsmax.com

By Lee Barney    |   Friday, 14 March 2025 09:53 AM EDT

Former U.S. Treasury secretary Larry Summers speaks during the World Economic Summit in Washington, D.C., on April 17, 2024. (Mandel Ngan/Getty Images)

https://www.newsmax.com/finance/streettalk/larry-summers-recession-tariffs/2025/03/14/id/1202806/

Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers sees a 50-50 chance of a recession in 2025 due to President Trump’s tariffs, immigration policies and federal government layoffs.

“I’d say there’s a 50-50 chance of a recession starting this year,” Summers told Bloomberg. “When economic revisions start being revised in a direction, there tends to be momentum, and all the revisions are going one way, pointing towards less growth and real uncertainty.”

The steep decline in the stock market and erosion of consumer confidence are also indicators of a possible recession, said Summers, who was Treasury Secretary during the Clinton administration and served as White House Economic Council director under Obama.

On Thursday, the S&P 500 declined by 10% from its February record, putting it in correction territory.

“The more people are looking for sharp cuts by the Fed, the more they’re judging that a recession is likely,” said Summers, who now serves on the board of OpenAI.

Summers called Trump’s tariffs “confused protectionist policy” because “manufacturing has trended downwards for 60 years as a share of the economy,” including even in China, primarily due to automation and assembly lines.

A better approach to rebuilding U.S. manufacturing and jobs, Summers suggested, would be to “subsidize outputs rather than raise the price of manufacturing inputs” via import tariffs. Summers also said it does not make sense to tariff goods made in Canada and Mexico, which, essentially, are manufacturing partners to the U.S.

“We have seen a sea change in perception in the two months since Trump was inaugurated,” said Summers, who was president of Harvard University from 2001 to 2006. When Trump came into office, “the prevailing view was a very strong economy, possibly inflation risk, and United States exceptionalism and outperformance relative to the rest of the world.

“But the combination of the substantial immigration restrictions, substantial federal government layoffs, the damage to U.S. competitiveness and U.S. production done by tariffication, and, above all, a big increase in risk premiums, have led to sharp reductions in consumer and business spending.”

Summers slammed Trump’s “steadfastness on tariffs, economic nationalism and vast, wide interpretation of government” reach for creating market uncertainty.

“Every time he recommits [to the tariffs], pessimism increases,” Summers said.

Asked if he agrees with Trump’s focus on strengthening the U.S. economy in the long term, Summers likened it to the Biden administration’s and the Federal Reserve’s initial dismissal of the severity of inflation.

“I don’t think the idea that this is some kind of transition period is going to work out very well at all,” Summers said.

As to what investors should pay attention to when deciding how to allocate their portfolios, Summers pointed to forward-looking data, including business orders, consumer sentiment, commodity prices and equity analyst forecasts. If downward revisions in any of these gains momentum, it could be a recession signal, Summers said.

However, the economist conceded that Trump’s trade policies could potentially benefit the U.S., noting: “Studies show that [tariffs] can go either way in terms of their impact in the short run. But it’s almost always bad over the medium to long run.

“So unless there’s a reversal in policy, I would expect this situation to get more serious.”

Lawrence (Larry) Summers

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lawrence_Summers

Differences between the sexes

So my best guess, to provoke you, of what's behind all of this is that the largest phenomenon, by far, is the general clash between people's legitimate family desires and employers' current desire for high power and high intensity, that in the special case of science and engineering, there are issues of intrinsic aptitude, and particularly of the variability of aptitude, and that those considerations are reinforced by what are in fact lesser factors involving socialization and continuing discrimination. I would like nothing better than to be proved wrong, because I would like nothing better than for these problems to be addressable simply by everybody understanding what they are, and working very hard to address them.[43]

Summers then went on to discuss approaches to remedying the shortage of women in high-end science and engineering positions.

This lunch-time talk drew accusations of sexism and careless scholarship, and an intense negative response followed, both nationally and at Harvard.[47] Summers apologized repeatedly.[48] Nevertheless, the controversy is speculated to have contributed to his resigning his position as president of Harvard University the following year, as well as costing Summers the job of Treasury Secretary in Obama's administration.[49]

Summers's protégée Sheryl Sandberg has defended him, saying that "Larry has been a true advocate for women throughout his career" at the World Bank and Treasury. Referring to the lunch talk, Sandberg said, "What few seem to note is that it is remarkable that he was giving the speech in the first place – that he cared enough about women's careers and their trajectory in the fields of math and science to proactively analyze the issues and talk about what was going wrong

Connecting the Dots:

Bloomberg News is a division of Bloomberg LP.

Michael R. Bloomberg is the founder of Bloomberg LP and a member of the Breakthrough Energy Coalition.

George Soros is a member of the Breakthrough Energy Coalition and was the chairman for the Foundation to Promote Open Society.

Foundation to Promote Open Society was a funder for the Brookings Institution (think tank).

William H. Gates III is the founder for the Breakthrough Energy Coalition and a co-chair for the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.  

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation was a funder for the Brookings Institution (think tank).

Lawrence H. Summers was a trustee at the Brookings Institution (think tank), the National Economic Council chairman for the Barack Obama administration and a director at the ONE Campaign.

Sheryl K. Sandberg was a trustee at the Brookings Institution (think tank) and is the COO & director for Facebook.

Mark Zuckerberg is a co-founder & chairman & CEO for Facebook and a member of the Breakthrough Energy Coalition.

Michael R. Bloomberg is a member of the Breakthrough Energy Coalitionthe founder of Bloomberg LP and an advocate for the ONE Campaign.

Michelle Obama is an advocate for the ONE Campaign.

Lawrence H. Summers was a director at the ONE Campaign, a trustee at the Brookings Institution (think tank) and the National Economic Council chairman for the Barack Obama administration.

International Rescue Committee is a partner with the ONE Campaign.

Foundation to Promote Open Society was a funder for International Rescue Committee and the Brookings Institution (think tank).

George Soros was the chairman for the Foundation to Promote Open Society and is a member of the Breakthrough Energy Coalition.  

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation was a funder for the International Rescue Committee and the Brookings Institution (think tank).

William H. Gates III is a co-chair for the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the founder for the Breakthrough Energy Coalition.

Mark Zuckerberg is a member of the Breakthrough Energy Coalition and a co-founder & chairman & CEO for Facebook.

Michael R. Bloomberg is a member of the Breakthrough Energy Coalition,

the founder of Bloomberg LP and an advocate for the ONE Campaign.

Michelle Obama is an advocate for the ONE Campaign.

Lawrence H. Summers was a director at the ONE Campaign, a trustee at the Brookings Institution (think tank) and the National Economic Council chairman for the Barack Obama administration.

International Rescue Committee is a partner with the ONE Campaign.

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation was a funder for the International Rescue Committee and the Brookings Institution (think tank).

Foundation to Promote Open Society was a funder for International Rescue Committee and the Brookings Institution (think tank).

George Soros was the chairman for the Foundation to Promote Open Society and is a member of the Breakthrough Energy Coalition.  

Michael R. Bloomberg is a member of the Breakthrough Energy Coalition, an advocate for the ONE Campaign and the founder of Bloomberg LP.

Bloomberg News is a division of Bloomberg LP.

Resources: Past Research

MSNBC Closes 2014 In Last Place, Hemorrhaging Viewers (Past Research on Bloomberg News)

Wednesday, December 31, 2014

https://thesteadydrip.blogspot.com/2014/12/msnbc-closes-2014-in-last-place.html

Bill Gates-Funded Climate Group Slashes Staff (Connecting the Dots: Bill Gates, The Breakthrough Energy Coalition, The Climate Reality Project, The New York Times, Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers, The World Economic Forum & Soros Funding, All Networking) (Past Research on Michael R. Bloomberg & the Breakthrough Energy Coalition)

Wednesday, March 12, 2025

https://thesteadydrip.blogspot.com/2025/03/bill-gates-funded-climate-group-slashes.html 

War Looms Large over G20 Event as Russia Meets Rivals in Bali (Connecting the Dots: Lawrence Summers, Timothy Geithner, Michelle Obama, G20, Soros & Henry Kissinger) (Past Research on Larry Summers)

Thursday, July 7, 2022

https://thesteadydrip.blogspot.com/2022/07/war-looms-large-over-g20-event-as.html

Bill Gates: Spoke With Trump, 'Amazing Things' for Global Health (Connecting the Dot: Bill Gates, The Gates Foundation, Mark Zuckerberg, global health, Obamacare, FDA, Pfizer, Johnson & Johnson, The Wall Street Journal, 60 Minutes, The Breakthrough Energy Coalition, Facebook & Soros Funding, All Networking) (Past Research on the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation)

Sunday, January 19, 2025

https://thesteadydrip.blogspot.com/2025/01/bill-gates-spoke-with-trump-amazing.html

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