Polling Convergence –
OAN/GRAVIS and Reuters Show Donald Trump Surging With 34 – 35% Support…
Posted on October 2, 2015 by sundance
Reuters
Trend Polling and OAN/Gravis
Polling have each announced and updated Presidential Polling for the
GOP race 2016. The results are exceptionally similar. Both
polling outcomes reflect Donald Trump with a massive lead amid the rest of the
field.
Gravis
Polling has Trump with 35% support. Reuters
shows an almost identical 34% outcome. The downstream alignments with the
remainder of the field are also very similar. Here’s the OAN/Gravis
result:
[…] Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research firm,
conducted the random survey of 2,665 registered voters across the U.S.
regarding the presidential election. The poll has a margin of error of +/-
1.9%. The polls were conducted on September 30 through October 1, 2015 (link)
Below is the graphic result from
Reuters
The Reuters Data also shows an interactive
trend line from August 8th to October 2nd. As Carson and
Fiorina were promoted by the media (Op-Hummingbird) you can see the Trump trend
line went down.
However, once Carson/Fiorina began to be vetted more
seriously, and gained additional exposure/scrutiny by the audience, their trend
line drops – and Trump is rising again.
The OAN/Gravis poll –when used in combination with
Reuters– is a great tool to interpret polling internals and predict
outcomes.
Candidate Marco Rubio is currently running along the same
path formerly traveled by Carson/Fiorina. Rubio is attempting the
same surge as Carson/Fiorina, only he’s about three weeks behind them in his
effort.
The key aspect to watch is whether Rubio will meet the same
fate as Fiorina (hit ceiling and drop back down), or will Rubio attain a status
closer to Carson; which is where a candidate can reach a higher tier, albeit
far distanced from the leader, and stay there.
This Rubio rise is more interesting because a trending Rubio
will not be forcing a Trump decline, it will be forcing a Bush decline (as evidenced
in the OAN/GRAVIS snapshot). Common sense would tell you that Rubio and
Bush are fighting for the same supporters – this polling outcome shows the same
common sense statistically.
If Rubio can get to the higher tier and stay there; well,
Jeb will be reduced to ping-pong ball status (where a candidate is like a
ping-pong ball thrown against the roof of a parking garage – the current fate
of Fiorina).
Establishment Republicans have a decision to make on who
they are going to support long-term financially, Bush or Rubio.
Additionally, there’s the Bush family ego at play and they can be a SERIOUSLY
bitter group when losing.
Both campaigns are in New York this weekend courting Wall
Street hedge-fund billionaires.
No comments:
Post a Comment