Shock Poll: Ted Cruz Plummets with White Evangelicals; Trails Donald Trump by 17 Points
by Mike Flynn 26 Jan 2016
A new
weekly tracking poll from NBC News
finds Donald Trump opening a big lead over Sen.
Ted Cruz (R-TX) 97% among
evangelical voters nationwide. The poll, conducted by NBC News and Survey Monkey, shows a 14 point shift in favor of
Trump over the past week.
According to the survey, Trump has 37 percent support
among evangelicals, while Texas Sen. Ted Cruz has the support of 20 percent of
evangelicals. Last week, Trump led Cruz by just 3 points in the tracking poll.
Dr. Ben Carson is third among evangelicals with 11
percent while
Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) 79% is fourth with 10
percent. Both candidates saw slight up-ticks in their support among
evangelicals over the past week.
Last week, the animosity between Trump and Cruz
intensified as voting in the Iowa caucus neared. Trump dominated headlines
early in the week with an endorsement from Sarah Palin. Trump also made an explicit
appeal to evangelicals with a widely publicized speech at Liberty University.
The son of Jerry Falwell also spoke strongly in support of Trump.
Political commentator Glenn Beck endorsed Ted Cruz in
response to many of these events. Immediately prior to his endorsement of Cruz,
Beck spoke forcefully against Donald Trump and made overt appeals to
evangelicals in opposition to Trump.
Most of the NBC survey was conducted before Beck’s
outbursts against Trump, but may have had a negative impact on Cruz at the end
of the poll survey. Of course, because we don’t have more detail on the survey,
it is also possible that Beck’s remarks stemmed a larger surge to Trump among
evangelicals.
Regardless of the impact of specific moves by the
campaigns, which aren’t tracked closely by most voters, this survey shows a
clear move by evangelicals towards Trump nationally over the past week.
Interestingly, though, the overall make-up of the
Republican primary race changed little over the past week. Trump continues to
lead the Republican field by more than 20 points. He currently has the support
of 39 percent of Republicans, while Ted Cruz is in second with 17 percent.
Rubio fell slightly to 10 percent support.
No other Republican candidate earns more than
double-digit support.
The race shifted just 5 points over the past week, with
Trump’s support up one point and Cruz’s support down 4 points nationally. One
would expect such a dramatic shift in evangelicals to have a larger impact on
the overall race, since evangelicals make up a sizable portion of Republican
primary voters.
It is also surprising that, in the NBC poll, results
among evangelicals match so closely the results among the overall Republican
electorate. Considering the poll’s margin of error, there is almost no
difference between the candidates’ standing among evangelicals and the wider
Republican electorate.
The NBC poll hasn’t
released internal numbers of its poll that breaks-out the number of
evangelicals in its sample. Overall, the on-line tracking poll is based on
results from just over 2,000 Republican voters. The results were compiled between
January 18-24.
NBC News
Marjorie
Margolies-Mezvinsky was a reporter for the NBC News, and her son is Marc
Mezvinsky.
Note: Marc Mezvinsky
is Marjorie Margolies-Mezvinsky’s
son, married to Chelsea V. Clinton,
and was an investment banker with the Goldman
Sachs Group Inc. (Bailout Company).
Chelsea V. Clinton
is married to Marc Mezvinsky, Hillary Rodham Clinton & William J. Clinton’s daughter, the vice
chair for the Bill, Hillary &
Chelsea Clinton Foundation, and was a correspondent for the NBC News.
Hillary Rodham
Clinton is Chelsea V. Clinton’s
mother, married to William J. Clinton,
the candidate for the 2016 Hillary Rodham
Clinton presidential campaign, Robert
B. Barnett is her attorney, and was a director at the Bill, Hillary & Chelsea Clinton Foundation.
William J. Clinton
is Chelsea V. Clinton’s father, an adviser
for the 2016 Hillary Rodham Clinton
presidential campaign, the founder of the Bill, Hillary & Chelsea Clinton Foundation, and Robert B. Barnett is his attorney.
Ready
PAC (Ready For Hillary)
supported for
the 2016 Hillary Rodham Clinton
presidential campaign.
Open
Society Foundations was a funder for the Bill, Hillary & Chelsea Clinton Foundation.
George
Soros is the founder & chairman for the Open Society Foundations, a co-chair, national finance council for
the Ready PAC (Ready For Hillary), and
was the chairman for the Foundation to Promote Open Society.
Foundation
to Promote Open Society was a funder for the Brookings Institution
(think tank), the Robin Hood
Foundation, and the Climate Reality
Project.
Sheryl K.
Sandberg was a trustee at the Brookings
Institution (think tank), married to David
Goldberg, and is a director at SurveyMonkey.
David Goldberg
was married to Sheryl K. Sandberg,
and the chairman & CEO for SurveyMonkey.
Margaret C.
Whitman is a director at SurveyMonkey,
was a director at the Goldman Sachs
Group Inc. (Bailout Company), and a strategic adviser for Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers.
Marc Mezvinsky was
an investment banker with the Goldman
Sachs Group Inc. (Bailout Company), is Marjorie
Margolies-Mezvinsky’s son, and married to Chelsea V. Clinton.
Chad C. Sweet was
a VP for the Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
(Bailout Company), and is married to Julie
Spellman Sweet.
Julie Spellman
Sweet is married to Chad C. Sweet,
and a friend of Heidi S. Cruz & Ted Cruz.
Heidi S. Cruz is a
friend of Julie Spellman Sweet,
married to Ted Cruz, and a managing
director for the Goldman Sachs Group
Inc. (Bailout Company).
Ted
Cruz is married to Heidi S. Cruz,
and is the candidate for the 2016 Ted
Cruz presidential campaign.
Peter D.
Kiernan III was a senior partner at the Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (Bailout Company), and is a director at
the Robin Hood Foundation.
Emma Bloomberg
was the chief of staff for the Robin
Hood Foundation, and is Michael R.
Bloomberg’s daughter.
Michael R.
Bloomberg is Emma Bloomberg’s
father, a possible candidate for the 2016
presidential campaign, and was a donor for the Robin Hood Foundation.
Robin Hood
Foundation raised money for the Hurricane
Sandy relief.
Hurricane
Sandy New Jersey Relief Fund is a relief organization for Hurricane Sandy.
Mary Pat
Christie is the chair for the Hurricane
Sandy New Jersey Relief Fund, married to Christopher J. Christie, and the president of the Drumthwacket Foundation.
Cam Henderson
was Mary Pat Christie’s chief of
staff, is an executive director for the Hurricane
Sandy New Jersey Relief Fund, and the finance director for the 2016 Chris Christie presidential campaign.
Christopher
J. Christie is the candidate for the 2016
Chris Christie presidential campaign, married to Mary Pat Christie, and an honorary chairman for the Drumthwacket Foundation.
Drumthwacket
Foundation maintains the governor's mansion for the New Jersey state government.
Donald
Trump was a donor for the Drumthwacket
Foundation, and is the candidate for the 2016 Donald Trump presidential campaign.
Robert B. Barnett
is Hillary Rodham Clinton, William J. Clinton, Sarah Palin’s attorney, and was Timothy J. Russert’s and Donna E. Shalala’s attorney.
Timothy J. Russert’s
attorney was Robert B. Barnett, and
was the VP & Washington bureau chief for the NBC News.
Chelsea V. Clinton
was a correspondent for the NBC News,
is married to Marc Mezvinsky, Hillary Rodham Clinton & William J. Clinton’s daughter, and the vice
chair for the Bill, Hillary &
Chelsea Clinton Foundation.
Donna E. Shalala is
the president & CEO for the Bill,
Hillary & Chelsea Clinton Foundation, a risk committee member for the Risky Business Project, was a fellow at
the Brookings Institution (think tank),
and Robert B. Barnett was her
attorney.
Michael R.
Bloomberg is a co-chair for the Risky
Business Project, Emma Bloomberg’s
father, a possible candidate for the 2016
presidential campaign, and was a donor for the Robin Hood Foundation.
Robin Hood
Foundation raised money for the Hurricane
Sandy relief.
Emma Bloomberg
was the chief of staff for the Robin
Hood Foundation, and is Michael R.
Bloomberg’s daughter.
Sheryl K.
Sandberg was a trustee at the Brookings
Institution (think tank), married to David
Goldberg, and is a director at SurveyMonkey.
David Goldberg
was married to Sheryl K. Sandberg,
and the chairman & CEO for SurveyMonkey.
Sarah
Palin’s attorney is Robert B.
Barnett.
Barack
Obama’s attorney is Robert B.
Barnett.
William J. Clinton’s
attorney is Robert B. Barnett.
Hillary Rodham
Clinton’s attorney is Robert B.
Barnett, Chelsea V. Clinton’s
mother, married to William J. Clinton,
the candidate for the 2016 Hillary Rodham
Clinton presidential campaign, and was a director at the Bill, Hillary & Chelsea Clinton
Foundation.
Chelsea V. Clinton
is Hillary Rodham Clinton & William J. Clinton’s daughter, married
to Marc Mezvinsky, the vice chair
for the Bill, Hillary & Chelsea
Clinton Foundation, and was a correspondent for the NBC News.
Marc Mezvinsky
is married to Chelsea V. Clinton, Marjorie Margolies-Mezvinsky’s son, and
was an investment banker with the Goldman
Sachs Group Inc. (Bailout Company).
Marjorie
Margolies-Mezvinsky is Marc
Mezvinsky’s mother, and was a reporter for the NBC News.
Charles P. Rose
Jr. was a correspondent for the NBC
News, and is an investor in Kleiner
Perkins Caufield & Byers.
Albert A. Gore Jr.
is a partner at Kleiner Perkins Caufield
& Byers, the chairman for the Climate
Reality Project, and was a donor for The
Climate Project.
The Climate
Project was a merged organization with the Climate Reality Project.
Kleiner
Perkins Caufield & Byers was a donor for The Climate Project.
Margaret C.
Whitman was a strategic adviser for Kleiner
Perkins Caufield & Byers, a director at the Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (Bailout Company), and is a director at SurveyMonkey.
David Goldberg
was the chairman & CEO for SurveyMonkey,
and married to Sheryl K. Sandberg.
Sheryl K.
Sandberg is a director at SurveyMonkey,
was married to David Goldberg, and a
trustee at the Brookings Institution
(think tank).
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