Paul Krugman insists
'we won't be' in a recession after admitting he was wrong to dismiss inflation
concerns (Connecting the Dots: Paul Krugman, Princeton,
The Federal Reserve, Soros & his son, Soros Funded Think Tanks, National
Bureau of Economic Research, Mikhail Gorbachev, the Communist Party of the
Soviet Union & an Orchestrated Crisis)
NYT columnist Paul Krugman famously predicted a 'global
recession' following Trump's victory in 2016
THE NEW YORK TIMES Published July 27, 2022 7:14pm EDT
By Joseph A. Wulfsohn | Fox News
https://www.foxnews.com/media/paul-krugman-recession-wrong-inflation
New York
Times columnist Paul
Krugman expressed confidence that
there "won't be" a recession just days after he offered a mea culpa
for wrongly dismissing inflation concerns.
In his piece Tuesday attempting to explain what a
recession is, Krugman began by acknowledging "there’s a pretty good
chance" that data set to be released on Thursday will show the GDP had
shrunk for two consecutive quarters, which has long been an indicator of a
recession.
Well, Krugman took a preemptive swipe at the
"breathless commentary" that will erupt declaring a recession,
telling readers "we won't be."
"That’s not how recessions are defined; more
important, it’s not how they should be defined," Krugman
wrote. "It’s possible that the people who actually decide whether we’re in
a recession… will eventually declare that a recession began in the United
States in the first half of this year, although that’s unlikely given other
economic data."
Krugman took a page from the White House playbook, which
has been pointing to the National
Bureau of Economic Research's Business
Cycle Dating Committee as the only group that can definitively say the country
is in a recession based on a wide variety of factors, not just GDP.
"So the official definition of a recession is that it
is a period that the committee has declared a recession; it’s an expert
judgment call, not a formula," Krugman wrote. "So where did the
two-quarter thing come from? Part of the answer is that the N.B.E.R. doesn’t
make recession calls in real time. For example, while the Great Recession is
now considered to have begun in December 2007, the dating committee didn’t make
that call until December 2008."
"Two quarters of economic contraction — a downturn
sustained enough that it probably isn’t a statistical blip — seems, on the
surface, like a reasonable criterion. But it’s not hard to see how it could be
deeply misleading, even if the data are correct," he continued.
The Nobel Prize-winning economist went on to say it would
be "foolish" to declare a recession solely based on Thursday's
findings despite the extremely high correlation with multiple consecutive
quarters of negative GDP growth.
"And what difference would a recession call make,
anyway?" Krugman wondered. "What should matter is the state of the
economy — which is complicated — not the particular word we use to describe
it."
He added, "I’m already hearing rumblings that the
[Biden] administration will be applying a double standard if it refuses to
accept the 'official' rule that two quarters of negative growth define a
recession…. Well, there is no such rule. It’s quite possible that we will in
fact experience a recession soon; it’s even possible, although less likely,
that one has already started. But there’s no reason to use the R-word this
week."
Krugman's high confidence in the U.S. steering clear of a
recession came just days after he issued a stunning admission that he was
"wrong" to dismiss inflation concerns.
In November 2021, a column titled "History Says
Don't Panic About Inflation" tamped down Carter-era comparisons that were
fueled by President
Biden's critics as the administration continued pushing a
narrative that the surge in prices was merely "transitory" following
the economic turmoil sprung from the coronavirus pandemic.
"Inflation is running considerably hotter than many
people, myself included, expected," Krugman said at the time. "What,
then, does history teach us about the current inflation spike? One lesson is
that brief episodes of overheating don’t necessarily lead to 1970s-type
stagflation — 1946-48 didn’t cause long-term inflation… And we really should
have some patience: Given what happened in the 1940s, pronouncements that
inflation can’t be transitory because it has persisted for a number of months
are just silly."
He later told readers, "So yes, that was an ugly
inflation report, and we hope that future reports will look better. But people
making knee-jerk comparisons with the 1970s and screaming about stagflation are
looking at the wrong history. When you look at the right history, it tells you
not to panic."
Last week, in a piece titled "I Was Wrong About
Inflation," Krugman acknowledged he misjudged the economic climate,
relying on post-2008 recession models that he thought applied to the post-COVID
economy.
Krugman famously predicted a global recession just days
after Donald
Trump was elected president in 2016.
"It really does now look like President Donald J.
Trump, and markets are plunging… If the question is when markets will recover,
a first-pass answer is never," Krugman wrote in November 2016.
He later warned, "We are very probably looking at a
global recession, with no end in sight. I suppose we could get lucky somehow.
But on economics, as on everything else, a terrible thing has just
happened."
Connecting
the Dots:
Paul R. Krugman is
an economist at Princeton University and was a consultant for the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Kathryn A. Hall is
a trustee at Princeton University and an Economic Advisory Council member for
the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
John F. McDonnell is
a benefactor for Princeton University and was the chairman for the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Alan S. Blinder is
a professor at Princeton University, a friend of Ben S.
Bernanke and was the vice chairman for the Federal Reserve Board.
Ben S. Bernanke was
a professor at Princeton University,
the chairman for the Federal Reserve Board,
is a friend of Alan S. Blinder and a distinguished fellow at the Brookings Institution (think tank).
Foundation to Promote Open Society was a funder for the Brookings Institution (think tank).
George Soros was the chairman for the Foundation
to Promote Open Society and his son is Jonathan Soros.
David H. Romer is
a senior fellow at the Brookings
Institution (think tank) and a co-director, program in monetary
economics for the National Bureau of
Economic Research.
Elizabeth E.
Bailey is an honorary trustee at the Brookings
Institution (think tank) and a
director at the National Bureau of Economic
Research.
Jonathan Soros is
George Soros’s son and a director at the New America Foundation (Think tank).
George Soros is Jonathan Soros’s father and was the chairman for the Foundation to Promote Open Society.
Foundation to Promote Open Society was a funder for the New America Foundation (think tank).
Schmidt Family Foundation was a funder for the New America Foundation (think tank).
Eric
E. Schmidt is a co-founder for the Schmidt Family Foundation, the chairman
of the New America Foundation (think tank),
was a funder for the New America Foundation
(think tank) and a trustee at Princeton University.
Elaine Pagels is
a professor at Princeton University and a trustee at the Aspen Institute (think tank).
Foundation to Promote Open Society was a funder for the Aspen Institute (think tank).
George Soros was the chairman for the Foundation
to Promote Open Society.
Paul A. Volcker was
a lifetime trustee at the Aspen Institute
(think tank), the president of the Federal
Reserve Bank of New York and the
chairman for the Federal Reserve Board.
Paul R. Krugman was
a consultant for the Federal Reserve
Bank of New York and is an
economist at Princeton University.
Stephen F. Cohen is
a professor emeritus at Princeton University and a friend of Mikhail
Gorbachev.
Mikhail Gorbachev
is a friend of Stephen F. Cohen,
an advisory board member for the Wheelchair
Foundation, was the president of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) and the general
secretary for the Communist Party of the
Soviet Union.
Anna Eleanor
Roosevelt is an advisory board member for the Wheelchair Foundation
and
the chair for the Roosevelt
Institute.
Jonathan Soros is a
senior fellow at the Roosevelt Institute, a director at the New America Foundation (Think tank) and George Soros’s son.
Foundation to Promote Open Society was
a funder for the Roosevelt Institute
and the New America Foundation (Think tank).
George Soros was the chairman for the Foundation
to Promote Open Society and is Jonathan
Soros’s father.
Schmidt Family Foundation was a funder for the New America Foundation (think tank).
Eric
E. Schmidt is a co-founder for the Schmidt Family Foundation, the chairman
of the New America Foundation (think tank),
was a funder for the New America Foundation
(think tank) and a trustee at Princeton University.
Paul R. Krugman is
an economist at Princeton University and was a consultant for the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Resources:
Past Research
Stalinist Destroying
the United States? Yes! (Past Research on Paul
Krugman)
FRIDAY, MARCH 21, 2014
https://thesteadydrip.blogspot.com/2014/03/stalinist-destroying-united-states-yes_21.html
SEIU to Place $15 Min.
Wage on San Francisco Ballot (Past Research on the National
Bureau of Economic Research)
TUESDAY, APRIL 8, 2014
https://thesteadydrip.blogspot.com/2014/04/seiu-to-place-15-min-wage-on-san.html
