Saturday, October 3, 2015

Polling Convergence – OAN/GRAVIS and Reuters Show Donald Trump Surging With 34 – 35% Support…

Polling Convergence – OAN/GRAVIS and Reuters Show Donald Trump Surging With 34 – 35% Support…
Posted on October 2, 2015 by sundance
Reuters Trend Polling and OAN/Gravis Polling have each announced and updated Presidential Polling for the GOP race 2016.   The results are exceptionally similar.  Both polling outcomes reflect Donald Trump with a massive lead amid the rest of the field.

Gravis Polling has Trump with 35% support.  Reuters shows an almost identical 34% outcome.  The downstream alignments with the remainder of the field are also very similar.  Here’s the OAN/Gravis result:
[…]  Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research firm, conducted the random survey of 2,665 registered voters across the U.S. regarding the presidential election. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 1.9%. The polls were conducted on September 30 through October 1, 2015 (link)  Below is the graphic result from Reuters
The Reuters Data also shows an interactive trend line from August 8th to October 2nd.  As Carson and Fiorina were promoted by the media (Op-Hummingbird) you can see the Trump trend line went down.
However, once Carson/Fiorina began to be vetted more seriously, and gained additional exposure/scrutiny by the audience, their trend line drops – and Trump is rising again.

The OAN/Gravis poll –when used in combination with Reuters– is a great tool to interpret polling internals and predict outcomes.

Candidate Marco Rubio is currently running along the same path formerly traveled by Carson/Fiorina.   Rubio is attempting the same surge as Carson/Fiorina, only he’s about three weeks behind them in his effort.

The key aspect to watch is whether Rubio will meet the same fate as Fiorina (hit ceiling and drop back down), or will Rubio attain a status closer to Carson; which is where a candidate can reach a higher tier, albeit far distanced from the leader, and stay there.

This Rubio rise is more interesting because a trending Rubio will not be forcing a Trump decline, it will be forcing a Bush decline (as evidenced in the OAN/GRAVIS snapshot).  Common sense would tell you that Rubio and Bush are fighting for the same supporters – this polling outcome shows the same common sense statistically.

If Rubio can get to the higher tier and stay there; well, Jeb will be reduced to ping-pong ball status (where a candidate is like a ping-pong ball thrown against the roof of a parking garage – the current fate of Fiorina).

Establishment Republicans have a decision to make on who they are going to support long-term financially, Bush or Rubio.  Additionally, there’s the Bush family ego at play and they can be a SERIOUSLY bitter group when losing.

Both campaigns are in New York this weekend courting Wall Street hedge-fund billionaires.

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