Analysis: Donald
Trump Would Win Election Today Based on Current Polling
by Matthew Boyle 26 Sep 2016NEW YORK CITY
NEW YORK CITY, New York —
As the first presidential debate looms later Monday evening just an hour from
here on Long Island at Hofstra University, a
Breitbart News analysis of current polling
in the presidential election shows that Donald J.
Trump—the Republican nominee for president—would win the election if it
were held Monday and the polls are correct.
It takes 270 electoral votes to win the election. With
the exception of two states—Maine and Nebraska—the winner of a state wins that
state’s electoral votes on Election Day in the general election.
The reliably red Republican states—Alaska, Idaho, Utah,
Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyoming, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma,
Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Missouri, Indiana, Mississippi, Kentucky, Alabama,
Tennessee, West Virginia, and South Carolina—are all expected to easily vote
for Trump for president. That totals 164 electoral votes.
Despite initial polling scares during the darkest days of
Trump’s campaign in also reliably red Georgia and Arizona, both of those
states—per recent polling—have seemingly moved solidly into the Trump column.
That’s another 27 electoral votes, for a total of 191 electoral votes with the
other red states.
From there, add in Florida with 29 electoral votes. Most
recent polling out of Florida—with a couple rare exceptions—has shown Trump
with a slight or modest lead. One outlier poll from Monmouth drags the RealClearPolitics
polling average in the four-way race between Trump, Democratic nominee Hillary Rodham
Clinton, Green Party nominee Jill Stein, and Libertarian Gary
Johnson down to a 0.1 percent Trump advantage in the Sunshine state. But the
billionaire real estate mogul leads in four out
of the last seven surveys, and the only other two where Clinton has
any lead it is inside the margin of error. Trump has had a comfortable cushion
in Florida since Labor Day, and in the last poll conducted partially before it,
he tied Clinton. Assuming Trump can lock down Florida and its 29 electoral
votes that he will need to win the White House, and add that to the rest he
already has, he then hits 220 electoral votes.
Move from there out to Nevada and Iowa for a total of 12
more electoral votes—six per each state. In the three-way race in Nevada—Stein
is not on the ballot in the Silver State—Trump has led in every poll in
September, according to RealClearPolitics. During the course of the month,
the man whose name is emblazoned across the top of a golden building just off
Las Vegas Boulevard has steadily increased his lead from just a point in the first
September poll by NBC News, The Wall Street Journal, and
Marist, to two points in a Monmouth
poll a week later, to three points in the latest two surveys from Fox News
and KTNV/Rasmussen.
His polling
average is a 2.3 percent advantage over Clinton.
It is so bad for Clinton in Nevada right now that even
Politico ran a
headline saying the state is giving Democrats “heartburn.” Iowa is
the battleground state where Trump is most comfortable right now. Trump has had
a comfortable lead in all three Iowa polls this month—from Emerson,
Monmouth,
and Quinnipiac—and
the RealClearPolitics
polling average currently gives Trump a 6.3 percent advantage in the
Hawkeye State walking into the debate. Fit Iowa and Nevada in the Trump column
and he is up to 232 electoral votes.
Next up is Maine’s Second Congressional District. Maine
is one of those two funky states that splits its electoral votes by
congressional district—Nebraska, which is solidly in Trump’s column, is the
other—and Trump is
polling significantly ahead of Clinton there. The only three public
surveys done in Maine’s second district—all of which were done
in September—give Trump massive leads outside their margins of error. The
first, by Emerson,
showed Trump with a five-point lead over Clinton at the beginning of the month
in a four-way race. A second poll from Colby
College/SurveyUSA done mostly after Labor Day gave Trump a ten-point
lead, and that finding was confirmed by a later poll from MPRC—a
progressive group—that had Trump up 11 points in Maine’s Second District. He was also
trending upward statewide, and in the RealClearPolitics average
statewide only trails Clinton by 3.8 points. But for now, let’s just give Trump
the place that’s firmly in his column—the Second District—and that is just one
electoral vote. With that picture, he is at 233 total electoral votes.
North Carolina, another state where Stein is not on the
ballot, has seen Trump trend upwards in polling during September. There
has not been, according
to RealClearPolitics, a single poll conducted entirely in September
that has shown Clinton leading in the Tar Heel State. Trump has been leading,
or the two were tied, in every three-way race poll since a Quinnipiac
poll conducted partially in August and partially in
September was released. RealClearPolitics has Trump’s polling average at a 1.8
percent advantage over Clinton in North Carolina, but his most recent poll—from Fox News—put him at a five-point lead
there. If Trump locks down North Carolina’s 15 electoral votes on top of
everything aforementioned, that puts him at 248 total and in striking distance
of the presidency.
This brings us to the all-important state of Ohio.
The Buckeye State is another where Clinton has not seen a lead in a public poll
since the beginning of September in a CBS News/YouGov poll
conducted from September 7 to September 9 that showed her up seven points.
That outlier poll, the only one from Ohio this month showing her ahead in the
four-way race, drags the
polling average for Trump down to a two-point Trump advantage. Every
other Ohio poll this month has shown Trump up, including separate Bloomberg, CNN, and Fox News
polls that show Trump up five points each. The Suffolk
University poll mid-month shows Trump up three, and the new Breitbart
News Network/Gravis Marketing survey just out on Sunday evening
shows Trump holding onto the lead, up a point on Clinton. CNN’s Jeff Zeleny
on Sunday noted that Hillary Clinton has essentially given up on Ohio,
saying, “So long, Ohio: It’s been 20 days since Hillary Clinton stepped foot
into this classic battleground state, and she’s not expected to visit it again
in the month of September.” He said that while Hillary Clinton’s campaign is
still spending money there, “Ohio, the mother of all battleground states, is
not in her wheelhouse anymore.” If Trump locks up Ohio’s 18 electoral votes,
and adds them to everything else, he is at 266 electoral votes.
That means he would be one state away from the
presidency. From where is it going to come? New Hampshire, Trump’s first
primary state win with four electoral votes? Virginia, the Old Dominion from
where his opponent’s running mate hails, with 13 electoral votes? Michigan, a
blue collar state where American workers are seeing core companies part of
their history like Ford move huge chunks of their to business to Mexico, with
its 16 electoral votes? Wisconsin, where a bevy of recent surveys have shown a
tightened race and from where the Republican National Committee (RNC) chairman
and Speaker of the House hail—along with being a stronghold of his former
rival-finally-turned-supporter Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX)—and its ten electoral
votes? Or Colorado, ironically the original birthplace of the so-called “Never
Trump” movement, which has been, perhaps more than Wisconsin, a thorn in
Trump’s side, with its nine electoral votes?
For now, it appears the answer is first and foremost
Colorado. The most recent Breitbart
News Network/Gravis Marketing survey from Colorado shows Trump up
four points over Clinton in the four-way race. The results—with the exception
of a mini-surge by Stein, who seems to be taking Johnson’s supporters
away—mirror similar polling from Boston’s Emerson
College earlier in the month. A CNN poll out Monday
morning also confirms a Trump lead in Colorado, as it has him up a point over
Clinton. That means two polls from Colorado this month have Trump up by four
points, while two other polls—from CBS
News/YouGov and Quinnipiac—have
Clinton up one and two points respectively, negligible leads inside those
surveys’ margins of error. The only reason why Clinton currently leads in the
RealClearPolitics polling average in the state—a meaningless lead of 0.2
percent in the spread—is an outlier poll from a couple weeks ago done by Rocky
Mountain PBS that showed Clinton up 7 points.
If Trump secures Colorado’s 9 electoral votes, along with
everything else considered, he would win at least 275 electoral votes—without
even considering Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Virginia, New Hampshire, or
even other places where he has been seen trending upwards in polls like New
Mexico—on November 8. That’s the ballgame. Of course, this depends on what
happens in the four debates. The first presidential one is Monday evening in
Hempstead, New York, while next week will see the vice presidential debate in
Virginia, and the following two presidential debates, in St. Louis and in Las
Vegas, will occur in the next few weeks. The course of public events also
play a factor, of course. But the race is Trump’s to lose at this point, if the
polls in the battleground states are accurate.
Breitbart News
Stephen Bannon
is the chairman for Breitbart News LLC,
and the CEO for the 2016 Donald Trump
presidential campaign.
Note: Donald Trump is the
candidate for the 2016 Donald Trump
presidential campaign, was a funder for the Bill, Hillary & Chelsea Clinton Foundation, and a donor for the
Drumthwacket Foundation.
Open
Society Foundations was a funder for the Bill, Hillary & Chelsea Clinton Foundation.
George
Soros is the founder & chairman for the Open Society Foundations, a co-chair, national finance council for
the Ready PAC (Ready For Hillary), was
the chairman for the Foundation to Promote Open Society, and a
benefactor for the Harlem Children's
Zone.
Foundation
to Promote Open Society was a funder for the Harlem Children's Zone, and the Robin Hood Foundation.
Ready
PAC (Ready For Hillary)
supported the 2016 Hillary Rodham
Clinton presidential campaign.
Evan
Bayh is a fundraiser for the 2016
Hillary Rodham Clinton presidential campaign, and a contributor for the Fox News.
Joseph M. Gregory
was a trustee at the Harlem Children's
Zone, and is a trustee at the Hofstra
University.
Michael R.
Bloomberg was a benefactor for the Harlem
Children's Zone, a donor for the Robin
Hood Foundation, New York (NY)
mayor, is the founder of Bloomberg LP,
and Emma Bloomberg’s father.
Bloomberg News
is a division of Bloomberg LP.
Emma Bloomberg
is Michael R. Bloomberg’s daughter,
and was the chief of staff for the Robin
Hood Foundation.
Jeff
Zucker is a director emeritus for the Robin
Hood Foundation, and is the president of CNN Worldwide.
CNN Worldwide
is a division of CNN.
Robin Hood
Foundation raised
money for the Hurricane Sandy relief.
Hurricane
Sandy New Jersey Relief Fund is a relief organization for Hurricane Sandy.
Mary Pat
Christie is the chair for the Hurricane
Sandy New Jersey Relief Fund, married to Christopher J. Christie, the president of the Drumthwacket Foundation, and Cam
Henderson was her chief of staff.
Steven
A. and Alexandra M. Cohen Foundation was a funder for the Hurricane Sandy New Jersey Relief Fund,
the Harlem Children's Zone, and the Robin Hood Foundation.
Joseph M. Gregory
was a trustee at the Harlem Children's
Zone, and is a trustee at the Hofstra
University.
Cam Henderson is
an executive director at the Hurricane
Sandy New Jersey Relief Fund, was Mary
Pat Christie’s chief of staff, and a finance director for the 2016 Chris Christie presidential campaign.
Christopher
J. Christie was the candidate for the 2016
Chris Christie presidential campaign, Richard
H. Bagger was his chief of staff, is married to Mary Pat Christie, the New
Jersey state government governor, and an honorary chairman for the Drumthwacket Foundation.
H. Carl McCall was
the comptroller for the New York state
government, and a commissioner for the Port
Authority of New York and New Jersey.
David S. Mack was
a commissioner for
the Port Authority of New York and New
Jersey, and is a trustee at the Hofstra
University.
Donald
Trump was a donor for the Drumthwacket
Foundation, a funder for the Bill,
Hillary & Chelsea Clinton Foundation, and is the candidate for the 2016 Donald Trump presidential campaign.
David S. Steiner
was a funder for the Bill, Hillary &
Chelsea Clinton Foundation, is the commissioner for the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey.
Peter S. Kalikow
was a funder for the Bill, Hillary &
Chelsea Clinton Foundation, a commissioner for the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, and is a trustee at the Hofstra University.
Lewis S. Ranieri
is a trustee at the Hofstra University,
and was a vice chairman at Salomon
Brothers.
Michael R.
Bloomberg was a general partner at Salomon
Brothers, a donor for the Robin Hood
Foundation, New York (NY) mayor,
a benefactor for the Harlem Children's
Zone, a chairman for the National
September 11 Memorial & Museum at the World Trade Center, is the
founder of Bloomberg LP, Emma Bloomberg’s father, and the
founder of the Bloomberg Family
Foundation.
Joseph M. Gregory
was a trustee at the Harlem Children's
Zone, and is a trustee at the Hofstra
University.
Bloomberg News
is a division of Bloomberg LP.
Patricia E. Harris
was a manager, corporate communications for Bloomberg LP, is the New
York (NY) deputy mayor, a director at the Bloomberg Family Foundation, and a director at the National September 11 Memorial & Museum
at the World Trade Center.
Richard H. Bagger
is a director at the National September
11 Memorial & Museum at the World Trade Center, a commissioner for the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey,
was Christopher J. Christie’s chief
of staff, and a New Jersey Senate
senator.
Peter S. Kalikow
was a commissioner for the Port
Authority of New York and New Jersey, a funder for the Bill, Hillary & Chelsea Clinton Foundation, and is a trustee at
the Hofstra University.
New Jersey
Senate is a legislative body for the New
Jersey state government.
Drumthwacket
Foundation maintains the governor's mansion for the New Jersey state government.
Donald
Trump was a donor for the Drumthwacket
Foundation, a funder for the Bill,
Hillary & Chelsea Clinton Foundation, and is the candidate for the 2016 Donald Trump presidential campaign.
Stephen Bannon
is the CEO for the 2016 Donald Trump
presidential campaign, and the chairman for Breitbart News LLC.
David S. Steiner
was a funder for the Bill, Hillary &
Chelsea Clinton Foundation, is the commissioner for the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey.
Peter S. Kalikow
was a funder for the Bill, Hillary &
Chelsea Clinton Foundation, a commissioner for the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, and is a trustee at the Hofstra University.
William M. Daley
was a funder for the Bill, Hillary &
Chelsea Clinton Foundation, and is a contributor for the CBS News.
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