The Last US-Russian Nuclear Pact Is about to Expire, Ending a Half-century of Arms Control (Connecting the Dots: China, Russia, Barack Obama, NATO, The RAND Corporation, The Carnegie Corporation of New York, The Arms Control Association (think tank), The Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation (think tank), Gavin Newsom & The Carnegie/Soros Network)
Newsmax
World
Wednesday,
04 February 2026 03:00 AM EST
The
last remaining nuclear arms pact between Russia and the United States is set to
expire Thursday, removing any caps on the two largest atomic arsenals for the
first time in more than a half-century.
The
termination of the New START Treaty would set the stage for what many fear
could be an unconstrained nuclear arms race.
Russian
President Vladimir Putin declared readiness to stick to the treaty’s limits for
another year if Washington follows suit, but President Donald Trump has been
noncommittal about extending it.
Trump
has repeatedly indicated he would like to keep limits on nuclear weapons and
involve China in arms control talks, a White House official who was not
authorized to talk publicly and spoke on condition of anonymity said Monday.
Trump will make a decision on nuclear arms control “on his own timeline,” the official
said.
Beijing
has balked at any restrictions on its smaller but growing nuclear arsenal.
Kremlin
spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Tuesday it would be a “more dangerous” world
without limits on U.S. and Russian nuclear stockpiles.
Arms
control advocates long have voiced concern about the expiration of New START,
warning it could lead to a new Russia-U.S. arms race, foment global instability
and increase the risk of nuclear conflict.
Failure
to agree on keeping the pact’s limits will likely encourage a bigger
deployment, said Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control
Association in Washington.
“We’re
at the point now where the two sides could, with the expiration of this treaty,
for the first time in about 35 years, increase the number of nuclear weapons
that are deployed on each side,” Kimball told The Associated Press. “And this
would open up the possibility of an unconstrained, dangerous three-way arms
race, not just between the U.S. and Russia, but also involving China, which is also increasing its
smaller but still deadly nuclear arsenal.”
Kingston
Reif of the RAND Corporation,
a former U.S. deputy assistant secretary of defense, also warned during an
online discussion that “in the absence of the predictability of the treaty,
each side could be incentivized to plan for the worst or to increase their
deployed arsenals to show toughness and resolve, or to search for negotiating
leverage.”
Putin
repeatedly has brandished Russia’s nuclear might since sending troops into
Ukraine in February 2022, warning Moscow was prepared to use “all means” to
protect its security interests. In 2024, he signed a revised nuclear doctrine
lowering the threshold for nuclear weapons use.
New
START, signed in 2010 by U.S. President Barack Obama and his Russian counterpart, Dmitry
Medvedev, restricted each side to no more than 1,550 nuclear warheads on no
more than 700 missiles and bombers — deployed and ready for use. It was
originally supposed to expire in 2021 but was extended for five more years.
The
pact envisioned sweeping on-site inspections to verify compliance, although
they stopped in 2020 because of the COVID-19 pandemic and never resumed.
In
February 2023, Putin suspended Moscow’s participation, saying Russia couldn’t
allow U.S. inspections of its nuclear sites at a time when Washington and its
NATO allies have openly declared Moscow’s defeat in Ukraine as their goal. At
the same time, the Kremlin emphasized it wasn’t withdrawing from the pact
altogether, pledging to respect its caps on nuclear weapons.
In
offering in September to abide by New START’s limits for a year to buy time for
both sides to negotiate a successor agreement, Putin said the pact's expiration
would be destabilizing and could fuel nuclear proliferation.
Rose
Gottemoeller, the chief U.S. negotiator for pact and a former NATO deputy secretary-general, said
extending it would have served U.S. interests. “A one-year extension of New
START limits would not prejudice any of the vital steps that the United States
is taking to respond to the Chinese nuclear buildup,” she told an online
discussion last month.
New
START followed a long succession of U.S.-Russian nuclear arms reduction pacts,
starting with SALT I in 1972 signed by U.S. President Richard Nixon and Soviet
leader Leonid Brezhnev — the first attempt to limit their arsenals.
The
1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty restricted the countries’ missile defense
systems until President George W. Bush took the U.S. out of the pact in 2001
despite Moscow’s warnings. The Kremlin has described Washington’s efforts to
build a missile shield as a major threat, arguing it would erode Russia’s
nuclear deterrent by giving the U.S. the capability to shoot down its
intercontinental ballistic missiles.
As a
response to the U.S. missile shield, Putin ordered the development of the
Burevestnik nuclear-tipped and nuclear-powered cruise missile and the Poseidon
nuclear-armed and nuclear-powered underwater drone. Russia said last year it
successfully tested the Poseidon and the Burevestnik and was preparing their
deployment.
Also
terminated in 2019 was the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces Treaty, which was
signed in 1987 and banned land-based missiles with a range between 500-5,500
kilometers (310-3,400 miles). Those missiles were seen as particularly
destabilizing because of their short flight time to their targets, leaving only
minutes to decide on a retaliatory strike and increasing the threat of a
nuclear war on a false warning.
In
November 2024 and again last month, Russia attacked Ukraine with a conventional
version of its new Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile. Moscow says
it has a range of up to 5,000 kilometers (3,100 miles), capable of reaching any
European target, with either nuclear or conventional warheads.
Without
agreements limiting nuclear arsenals, Russia “will promptly and firmly fend off
any new threats to our security,” said Medvedev, who had signed the New START
treaty and is now deputy head of Putin's Security Council.
“If we
are not heard, we act proportionately seeking to restore parity,” he said in
recent remarks.
Medvedev
specifically mentioned Trump's proposed Golden Dome missile defense system
among potentially destabilizing moves, emphasizing a close link between
offensive and defensive strategic weapons.
Trump’s
plan has worried Russia and China, Kimball said.
“They’re
likely going to respond to Golden Dome by building up the number of offensive
weapons they have to overwhelm the system and make sure that they have the
potential to retaliate with nuclear weapons,” he said, adding that offensive
capabilities can be built faster and cheaper than defensive ones.
Trump’s
October statement about U.S. intentions to resume nuclear tests for the first
time since 1992 also troubled the Kremlin, which last conducted a test in 1990
when the USSR still existed. Putin said Russia will respond in kind if the U.S.
resumes tests, which are banned by a global treaty that Moscow and Washington
signed.
U.S.
Energy Secretary Chris Wright said in November that such tests would not
include nuclear explosions.
Kimball
said a U.S. resumption of tests “would blow a massive hole in the global system
to reduce nuclear risk,” prompting Russia to respond in kind and tempting
others, including China and India, to follow suit.
The
world was heading toward accelerated strategic competition, he said, with more
spending and increasingly unstable relations involving the U.S., Russia, and
China on nuclear matters.
“This
marks a potential turning point into a much more dangerous period of global
nuclear competition, the likes of which we’ve not seen in our lifetimes,”
Kimball added.
Associated
Press writer Michelle L. Price in Washington contributed.
The
Associated Press receives support for nuclear security coverage from the Carnegie
Corporation of New York and
Outrider Foundation. The AP is solely responsible for all content.
Connecting
the Dots:
Yegor Gaidar was
the prime minister for Russia and a board member of the International
Crisis Group.
Thomas R.
Pickering was a U.S. ambassador for Russia and is a
co-chair for the International Crisis Group.
George Soros is a board member of the International Crisis
Group, the founder & chairman for the Open Society Foundations and
was the chairman for the Foundation to Promote Open Society.
Open Society Foundations was a funder for the Carnegie
Endowment for International Peace (think tank).
Foundation to Promote Open Society was a funder for the Carnegie
Endowment for International Peace (think tank).
Gregory B. Craig is
a trustee at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (think
tank) and was the White House counsel for the Barack Obama
administration.
Jon M. Huntsman
Jr. is a trustee at the Carnegie Endowment for International
Peace (think tank) and an ambassador to China for
the Barack Obama administration.
James F. Collins is
a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
(think tank) and was a U.S. ambassador for Russia.
J. Stapleton Roy is
a trustee at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (think
tank) and was a U.S. ambassador for China.
Andrew Carnegie was the founder of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (think tank) and the founder of the Carnegie Corporation of New York.
Carnegie Corporation of New York was a funder for the Carnegie
Endowment for International Peace (think tank), the Atlantic
Council of the United States (think tank), the RAND Corporation and
a supporter for the American Society for Muslim Advancement.
Ted Lieu was honored with the Carnegie
Corporation of New York's Great Immigrants Award,
has represented California's 36th congressional district in the United
States House of Representatives since 2023 and is a member of the Congressional Progressive Caucus.
Astrid S. Tuminez was a program officer at the Carnegie Corporation of New York and is the 7th President of the Utah Valley University (Charlie Kirk Shooting).
Carnegie Corporation of New York was a funder for the Carnegie
Endowment for International Peace (think tank), the Atlantic Council of
the United States (think tank), the RAND Corporation and a
supporter for the American Society for Muslim Advancement.
Foundation to Promote Open Society was a funder for the Carnegie
Endowment for International Peace (think tank).
George Soros was the chairman for the Foundation to
Promote Open Society and is the founder & chairman for the Open
Society Foundations.
Open Society Foundations was a funder for the Carnegie
Endowment for International Peace (think tank) and the Atlantic Council
of the United States (think tank).
William H.
Draper III was a director at the Atlantic Council of the
United States (think tank) and is William H. Draper Jr’s son.
William H. Draper Jr. was William H. Draper III’s father and a U.S. ambassador for NATO.
Wesley K. Clark was the supreme allied commander – Europe for NATO and
is a director at the Atlantic Council of the United States (think tank).
Robert E. Hunter was
a U.S. ambassador for NATO and is a director at the Atlantic
Council of the United States (think tank).
Norman W. Ray was
the assistant secretary general for NATO and a director at
the Atlantic Council of the United States (think tank).
James L. Jones
Jr. was supreme allied commander - Europe for NATO, the
national security adviser for the Barack Obama administration and
is a director at the Atlantic Council of the United States (think tank).
George A. Joulwan was
the supreme allied commander for NATO in Europe and is a
director at the Atlantic Council of the United States (think tank).
R. Nicholas Burns was
a U.S. permanent representative for the North Atlantic Treaty
Organization (NATO) and is a director at the Atlantic
Council of the United States (think tank).
Andrew
Goodpaster was a supreme allied commander Europe for the North
Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the chairman for
the Atlantic Council of the United States (think tank).
James G.
Stavridis was a supreme allied commander Europe for the North
Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and is a director at
the Atlantic Council of the United States (think tank).
Robert E. Hunter was
a U.S. ambassador for NATO, a senior adviser for the RAND
Corporation and is a director at the Atlantic Council of the United
States (think tank).
Paul G. Kaminski was
the chairman for the RAND Corporation and a director at
the Atlantic Council of the United States (think tank).
Harold Brown is
a trustee emeritus at the RAND Corporation and an
honorary director at the Atlantic Council of the United States (think
tank).
Frank C. Carlucci is
a trustee emeritus at the RAND Corporation and an
honorary director at the Atlantic Council of the United States (think
tank).
James B.
Steinberg is a director at the Atlantic Council of the United
States (think tank), was an analyst for the RAND Corporation
and a director, foreign policy studies for the Brookings Institution
(think tank).
Open Society Foundations was a funder for the Atlantic
Council of the United States (think tank).
George Soros is the founder & chairman for the Open
Society Foundations and was the chairman for the Foundation to
Promote Open Society.
Foundation to Promote Open Society was a funder for the Brookings Institution (think tank).
Carnegie Corporation of New York was a funder for the Atlantic
Council of the United States (think tank), the Brookings
Institution (think tank) the RAND Corporation and a supporter for
the American Society for Muslim Advancement.
Ted Lieu was honored with the Carnegie
Corporation of New York's Great Immigrants Award,
has represented California's 36th congressional district in the United
States House of Representatives since 2023 and is a member of the Congressional Progressive Caucus.
Astrid S. Tuminez was a program officer at the Carnegie Corporation of New York and is the 7th President of the Utah Valley University (Charlie Kirk Shooting).
Carnegie Corporation of New York was a funder for the Brookings
Institution (think tank), the RAND Corporation and a supporter for
the American Society for Muslim Advancement.
Leonard D.
Schaeffer is a trustee at the Brookings Institution (think
tank) and a trustee at the RAND Corporation.
Ivo H. Daalder was
a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution (think tank) and
is the NATO U.S. permanent representative.
John R. Allen is
a fellow at the Brookings Institution (think tank) and was the
supreme allied commander Europe nominee for NATO.
Cameron F. Kerry is
a fellow at the Brookings Institution (think tank), John F.
Kerry’s brother and a senior counsel at Sidley Austin LLP.
Barack Obama was
an intern at Sidley Austin LLP.
Michelle Obama was
a lawyer at Sidley Austin LLP.
Cyrus
F. Freidheim Jr. is an honorary trustee at the Brookings
Institution (think tank) and a member of the Commercial Club of
Chicago.
R. Eden Martin is
the president of the Commercial Club of Chicago and counsel
at Sidley Austin LLP.
Newton N. Minow was a member of the Commercial Club of Chicago, a senior counsel at Sidley Austin LLP, the chairman for the RAND Corporation and an honorary trustee at the Carnegie Corporation of New York.
Carnegie Corporation of New York was a funder for the RAND
Corporation, the Brookings Institution (think tank) the Atlantic
Council of the United States (think tank) and a supporter for the American
Society for Muslim Advancement.
Leonard D.
Schaeffer is a trustee at the Brookings Institution (think
tank) and a trustee at the RAND Corporation.
Ivo H. Daalder was
a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution (think tank) and
is the NATO U.S. permanent representative.
John R. Allen is
a fellow at the Brookings Institution (think tank) and was the
supreme allied commander Europe nominee for NATO.
James B.
Steinberg was a director, foreign policy studies for the Brookings
Institution (think tank), an analyst for the RAND Corporation
and is a director at the Atlantic Council of the United States (think
tank).
Foundation to Promote Open Society was a funder for the Brookings
Institution (think tank).
George Soros was the chairman for the Foundation to
Promote Open Society and is the founder & chairman for the Open
Society Foundations.
Open Society Foundations was a funder for the Atlantic Council of the United States (think tank).
Carnegie Corporation of New York was a funder for the Brookings
Institution (think tank) the Atlantic Council of the United States
(think tank) the RAND Corporation and a supporter for the American
Society for Muslim Advancement.
Andrew Carnegie was
the founder of the Carnegie Corporation of New York.
Ted Lieu was honored with the Carnegie
Corporation of New York's Great Immigrants Award,
has represented California's 36th congressional district in the United
States House of Representatives since 2023 and is a member of the Congressional Progressive Caucus.
Astrid S. Tuminez was a program officer at the Carnegie
Corporation of New York and is the 7th President of the Utah
Valley University (Charlie Kirk Shooting).
Newton N. Minow
was an honorary trustee at the Carnegie Corporation of New York, a
member of the Commercial Club of Chicago, a senior counsel at Sidley
Austin LLP and the chairman for the RAND Corporation.
Barack Obama was
an intern at Sidley Austin LLP.
Michelle Obama was
a lawyer at Sidley Austin LLP and an advocate for the ONE
Campaign.
International
Rescue Committee is a partner with the ONE Campaign.
Foundation to Promote Open Society was a funder for the International
Rescue Committee, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (think
tank) and the Center for American Progress.
George Soros was
the chairman for the Foundation to Promote Open Society, a
supporter for the Center for American Progress and is the founder
& chairman for the Open Society Foundations.
Open Society Foundations was a funder for the Carnegie
Endowment for International Peace (think tank) and the Center for
American Progress.
International
Rescue Committee is a partner with the ONE Campaign.
Morton H. Halperin is a senior adviser for
the Open Society Foundations, a director at the ONE
Campaign, was served with the Carnegie Endowment for International
Peace (think tank) and a senior fellow at the Center for
American Progress.
Andrew Carnegie was the founder of the Carnegie
Endowment for International Peace (think tank) and the founder of the Carnegie
Corporation of New York.
Carnegie
Corporation of New York was a funder for the Carnegie
Endowment for International Peace (think tank), the Center for
American Progress and a supporter for the American Society for
Muslim Advancement.
Ted Lieu was honored with the Carnegie
Corporation of New York's Great Immigrants Award,
has represented California's 36th congressional district in the United
States House of Representatives since 2023 and is a member of the Congressional Progressive Caucus.
Astrid S. Tuminez was a program officer at the Carnegie Corporation of New York and is the 7th President of the Utah Valley University (Charlie Kirk Shooting).
Carnegie Corporation of New York was a funder for the RAND
Corporation, the Brookings Institution (think tank) and a
supporter for the American Society for Muslim Advancement.
Foundation to Promote Open Society was a funder for the Brookings
Institution (think tank).
George Soros was the chairman for the Foundation to
Promote Open Society.
John D.
Steinbruner was a director of the Foreign Policy Studies Program for
the Brookings Institution (think tank) and is the chairman for
the Arms Control Association (think tank).
Carnegie
Corporation of New York was a funder for the Brookings
Institution (think tank), the Arms Control Association (think tank),
the RAND Corporation and a supporter for the American
Society for Muslim Advancement.
John Isaacs is
a director at the Arms Control Association (think tank)
and an executive director at the Center for Arms Control and
Non-Proliferation (think tank).
Gavin Newsom is
a director at the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation (think
tank), the California state government governor and was invited
to George Soros’s 2013 wedding reception.
George Soros was
married in 2013 and Gavin Newsom was a guest at his wedding
reception and the chairman for the Foundation to Promote Open Society.
Foundation to Promote Open Society was a funder for the NAACP
Legal Defense & Educational Fund.
George
Wallerstein is a senior director for the NAACP Legal Defense
& Educational Fund and an advisory board member for the Center
for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation (think tank).
Eric H. Holder Jr. was
an intern at the NAACP Legal Defense & Educational Fund, an
attorney general at the U.S. Department of Justice for
the Barack Obama administration and is a partner at Covington
& Burling LLP.
Bureau
of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives is a division of
the U.S. Department of Justice.
Covington
& Burling LLP was the lobby firm for the Americans for
Responsible Solutions.
Americans
for Responsible Solutions is a “Gun Safety, Gun Control”
PAC for guns.
Michael R.
Bloomberg was a contributor for the Americans for Responsible
Solutions and an advocate for the ONE Campaign.
International
Rescue Committee is a partner with the ONE Campaign.
Foundation to Promote Open Society was a funder for the International
Rescue Committee, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
(think tank) and the Center for American Progress.
George Soros was the chairman for the Foundation to
Promote Open Society, a supporter for the Center for American
Progress and is the founder & chairman for the Open Society
Foundations.
Open Society Foundations was a funder for the Carnegie
Endowment for International Peace (think tank) and the Center for
American Progress.
International
Rescue Committee is a partner with the ONE Campaign.
Morton H. Halperin is a senior adviser for
the Open Society Foundations, a director at the ONE
Campaign, was served with the Carnegie Endowment for International
Peace (think tank) and a senior fellow at the Center for
American Progress.
Andrew Carnegie was the founder of the Carnegie
Endowment for International Peace (think tank) and the founder of the Carnegie
Corporation of New York.
Carnegie
Corporation of New York was a funder for the Carnegie
Endowment for International Peace (think tank), the Center for
American Progress, the Arms Control Association (think tank), the RAND
Corporation and a supporter for the American Society for Muslim
Advancement.
Resources:
Past Research
NATO,
Russia Hold Identical Arctic Training Programs (Past
Research on the RAND Corporation)
Wednesday,
May 27, 2015
https://thesteadydrip.blogspot.com/2015/05/nato-russia-hold-identical-arctic.html
Rep.
Burchett Wants Soros, Associate Before House Panel (Connecting the Dots: Jamie
Gorelick, The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (think tank), Wilmer
Cutler Pickering Hale and Dorr, Russia, Letitia James, The Committee for
Economic Development, FBI, CIA, The Open Society Foundations, The Foundation to
Promote Open Society & Soros Funding, All Networking) (Past Research on Russia)
Sunday,
August 3, 2025
https://thesteadydrip.blogspot.com/2025/08/rep-burchett-wants-soros-associate.html
Chinese
Crash Crushes Stock Market as Obama Imitates Chinese Economy (Past Research on China)
Monday,
August 24, 2015
https://thesteadydrip.blogspot.com/2015/08/chinese-crash-crushes-stock-market-as.html
Top
NATO Official Urges Business Leaders to Prepare for 'Wartime Scenario'
(Connecting the Dots: NATO & Soros Funding, All Networking) (Past Research on NATO)
Thursday,
November 28, 2024
https://thesteadydrip.blogspot.com/2024/11/top-nato-official-urges-business.html
Sen.
Warren Presses Amazon on Algorithmic Pricing for Schools (Connecting the Dots:
Senator Elizabeth Warren, Ganesh Sitaraman, The Center for American Progress,
Amazon, HUD, The U.S. Federal Trade Commission, The Urban Institute, The U.S.
Department of Education & The Carnegie/Soros Network) (Past Research on the Carnegie Corporation New York)
Thursday,
March 12, 2026
https://thesteadydrip.blogspot.com/2026/03/sen-warren-presses-amazon-on.html
Hours
After John Kerry Demands Green Transition Accelerated – His Emissions Closet
Swings Wide Open (Connecting the Dots: Cameron Kerry, John Kerry, Teresa Heinz
Kerry, Soros, the Climate Reality Project, the Brookings Institution (think
tank), the EPA and onto the FDA, Pfizer & Johnson & Johnson. It’s the
Network That Never Ends. One Project (Climate Change) Just bleeds into the Next
(Covid Project)) (Past Research on Cameron Kerry)
Thursday,
July 21, 2022
https://thesteadydrip.blogspot.com/2022/07/hours-after-john-kerry-demands-green.html
John
Bolton to Newsmax: Trump an Aberration; I'll Be Proven Right (Connecting the
Dots: John Bolton, Kirkland & Ellis LLP, Human Rights First, Sidley Austin
LLP, Diamond Offshore Drilling Inc, Export-Import Bank of the US & Soros
Funding, All Networking) (Past Research on Sidley
Austin LLP)
Friday,
January 17, 2025
https://thesteadydrip.blogspot.com/2025/01/john-bolton-to-newsmax-trump-aberration.html
Trump
Blasts ABC, Demands Kimmel Be Fired (Connecting the Dots: Jimmy Kimmel, ABC,
The FCC & The Carnegie/Soros Network) (Past
Research on the Carnegie Corporation New York)
Thursday,
April 30, 2026
https://thesteadydrip.blogspot.com/2026/04/trump-blasts-abc-demands-kimmel-be.html
Gavin
Newsom Blames NRA for Baton Rouge Police Shootings (Past
Research on Gavin Newsom, the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation
(think tank), the Arms Control Association (think tank) & the Carnegie
Corporation New York)
Tuesday,
July 19, 2016
https://thesteadydrip.blogspot.com/2016/07/gavin-newsom-blames-nra-for-baton-rouge.html
