Is Obama building a conservative youth movement?
It is popular wisdom that President Obama’s
progressive social agenda is predicated on widespread support from the younger,
hip generation. Certainly, concerns like gay marriage, marijuana legalization,
abortion, the DREAM Act, gun control, women in combat, and blocking gas and oil
exploration and pipeline transportation all get a lot of play on campuses and
in popular culture. And these wedge issues supposedly represent the future
direction of the country — a wise agenda for liberals eager to cement a majority
constituency for decades to come.
But
aside from the common-sense recognition that people become more conservative as
they age and mature — and start paying taxes, and become financially
responsible for their own children’s future — there is just as much likelihood
that Barack Obama may inadvertently be building a conservative youth movement.
Indeed, the new liberalism in all its economic manifestations is reactionary
and anti-youth to the core. The administration seems aware of the potential
paradoxes in this reverse “What’s the matter with Kansas?” syndrome of
young people voting against their economic interests. Thus follows the constant
courting of the hip and cool Beyoncé, Jay-Z, Lena Dunham, Occupy Wall
Streeters, and others who blend pop culture, sex, youth, energy, and fad —
almost anything to avoid the truth that today’s teenagers are starting out each
owing a lifetime share of the national debt amounting to more than
three-quarters of a million dollars. Those who ran up the debt enjoyed the
borrowing, but won’t be around to pay back their proverbial fair share.
University
tuition has soared well beyond the rate of inflation, increases brought about
by an inexcusable surge in administrative staffs, the reduction in teaching
loads over the last few decades, the costs of subsidizing overly specialized
and esoteric research, all sorts of costly new race/class/gender explorations,
and a general expansion of non-teaching support staffs. Justification of such
escalating costs was always based on the truism that college degrees represented
a wise lifetime investment that ensured increased salary and better job
security. That may still be true — in the long run — but bleak immediate
employment prospects for those under 25, along with ballooning college loans,
will eventually prompt a reexamination of such received wisdom. When academics
at traditional universities trash private tech schools and on-line colleges,
their criticism is not so much pedagogical as self-interested.
Apart
from the elite of the Ivy League, most indebted students no longer look back at
their professors and administrators as paragons of virtue or avatars of social
change; instead, they see them as part of an establishment that sold them a
bill of goods, one more interested in getting ever more customers than in
finding jobs for those who bought their product on credit. The latest job
figures show that among 20-to-24-year-olds, unemployment has risen (alone among
various age cohorts) to 13.3 percent. For those in their prime working years
(e.g., 25 to 34) unemployment is still high, at 7.4 percent. National debt per
person has soared to over $53,000, a $20,000 surge in just the first 50 months
of the Obama presidency. Most of the borrowing — both the Obama
administration’s new borrowing and the older borrowing for payouts to those
receiving pensions, Medicare, and Social Security — was the property of the
Baby Boomer cohorts.
To a
generation saddled with college debt and facing bleak job prospects, the
current Democratic hysteria over any sensible reform of Social Security and
Medicare increasingly sounds just as surreal. In fact, the only question left
about reforming entitlements is not if, but when: whether those in their
forties and fifties will share the pain of cutting back, or whether the
escalating burdens of keeping the system solvent will fall entirely on a
younger generation that will have bigger debts and smaller incomes.
Tomorrow’s
public employee is not likely to receive a generous defined-benefit retirement
plan — but will still hear whining from his far-better-compensated superiors as
to how unfair it is to question whether their own compensation is sustainable.
And far fewer in the future will so easily land a government job at all: In
California the unsustainable cost of the public work force is due not to
overstaffing, but to too few younger taxpayers to meet the state’s
existing obligations, given the lucrative compensation and retirement
packages of a select elder few, who somehow believe that their own privilege is
proof of their egalitarianism. Forgotten in the national acrimony over unfunded
defined-benefit retirement plans for public employees is that the divide is not
public versus private sector, or left versus right, but older versus younger.
For the public unions the implicit message is something like the following:
Keep borrowing to fund our generation’s unsustainable pensions and, in turn, we
may concede that the next generation will never receive something so
bankrupting to the public purse.
The
soon-to-be-$17-trillion debt — run up largely by the Baby Boomer generation —
will lead to decades of budget cutting, inflation, and higher taxes. A decade
from now, as 30-somethings try to buy a home and raise children while they are
still paying off their student loans, they may wonder why the national burden
of repaying the debts of the better-off falls largely upon themselves. Indeed,
a legacy of the Baby Boomer generation is the idea that it is natural for
younger people to begin life with huge loans — not for a house or a car, but
for an education of dubious market value.
The
offspring of well-connected journalists, politicians, academics, professionals,
and celebrities assure us in their documentaries and op-eds, and through their
parents’ voices, that conservatives have lost the war for America’s youth. They
certainly have, at least for a while, at in-the-news, private liberal-arts
campuses. But for the vast majority of the state-schooled who have no such
connections, little if any expectation of an inheritance, and lots of
accumulated debt, there is nothing liberal about the values inherent in the
present economy.
Given
a choice between gay marriage, legalization of pot, and the banning of
so-called assault rifles on the one hand, and, on the other, a good job with
lower taxes, most young people will quietly prefer the latter. For that reason,
conservatives should not outbid liberals to appear cool to new voters, but
simply explain that a fair economy for all generations is no longer on the
liberal agenda.
— NRO contributor Victor
Davis Hanson is a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution. His The Savior Generals will appear in
May from Bloomsbury Books.
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