Blue Georgia:
Can Jimmy Carter's Grandson Turn Georgia
Into A 2016 Swing
State?
By Eric Brown
on March 19 2014 12:51 PM
Georgia state Sen. Jason Carter, grandson of former president
Jimmy Carter, has enough support in the state to pose a serious challenge to
incumbent Republican Gov. Nathan Deal in this year's gubernatorial election.
Jason Carter
http://www.ibtimes.com/blue-georgia-can-jimmy-carters-grandson-turn-georgia-2016-swing-state-1562345
From the 1960s to the millennium, Georgia
gradually changed from a Democratic bastion to a solidly Republican state, a
bedrock of conservatism that could only swing left under the most extreme
circumstances. This November, however, a pair of gubernatorial and Senate
elections featuring familiar names could be remembered as the tipping point
when Georgia
finally went blue.
One of the new faces of rising
liberalism in Georgia
is state Sen. Jason Carter, grandson
of former President Jimmy Carter and
currently Republican Gov. Nathan Deal’s biggest threat in the 2014
gubernatorial race. Carter has already earned support from his grandfather and
from civil rights legend Rep. John Lewis, D-Ga., and it seems to be paying off:
in a poll announced last week, Carter pulled ahead of Deal by three points.
At the same time, another
Democrat, Michelle Nunn, daughter of
former Sen. Sam Nunn, D-Ga., is
making a serious run in the Senate race. The decision by Sen. Saxby Chambliss,
R-Ga., not to seek re-election has led to seven Republicans scrambling for the
position, and moderate Democrat Nunn is in a position to capitalize on their
infighting.
At the moment, though, all of Georgia’s U.S. senators and statewide
officials, and most of its House delegation, are Republicans, so can Carter and
Nunn turn the tide? According to Emory
University professor Dr. Alan
Abramowitz, who specializes in party realignment in the U.S., Georgia’s demographics are changing
enough that if Carter and Nunn can't do it this year, someone else might soon.
“By 2016 or 2020, I think Georgia could
be swing state in a presidential election,” Abramowitz said in an interview.
Since 1964, Georgia has
gone for a non-Republican presidential candidate only four times. The state
went blue twice for native son Jimmy Carter, when he won narrowly in 1976 and
when he was swept out by Ronald Reagan in 1980. Georgia also went for fellow Southerner
Bill Clinton in 1992, barely, but not in 1996, and cast its electoral votes for
segregationist George Wallace’s third-party bid in 1968. Both of those times,
the winner only gained a plurality of votes among three candidates. Clearly, it
takes special circumstances to pull off a non-Republican victory for president
on Georgia.
Right now, those circumstances are the state’s changing demographics.
“Georgia is going to be the next
purple state. It’s trending the same way Virginia
was a few years ago, though it's not as far along,” Abramowitz said.
Over the past decade, minority
populations have jumped significantly in Georgia, narrowing the GOP edge in
the state. From 2000 to 2010, Georgia’s
non-white population increased from 37 percent to 45 percent, putting it on
track to becoming a majority-minority state in the coming years. Given the
GOP’s continuing failures at reaching out to minority groups, and rising black
voter turnout, the era of conservative domination in Georgia is likely on its way out.
Still, there are some challenges
to overcome before Georgia
becomes as close a battleground as Virginia.
For instance, Georgia
has a significantly stronger evangelical Protestant base, giving conservative
white voters a stronger voice than in many other states. One of the leading
Republicans in the Senate race, Rep. Paul Broun of Athens, is well known for his firm
evangelical beliefs. But the increasingly powerful voices of young voters and
minorities in Georgia
have the power to turn the state into a battleground for coming elections.
This year, though, Democrats don’t
exactly have a slam dunk lined up in the gubernatorial and Senate elections.
Carter and Nunn have better chances than any Democrat in the 21st century, but
it will still take work to pull off a win.
“For the Democrats to win either
election, they need help from the Republicans," Abramowitz explained.
"What I mean is, in the Senate race, Republicans would need to elect
someone a little too extreme for most people. If you ask most Democrats who
they’d like to run against, they’ll pick Paul Broun. Not just because he’s very
conservative, but because he has a knack for saying unusual things.”
It’s true. Broun has appeared
numerous times in the national media -- including on this site -- for making
some rather offbeat claims. In 2011, for instance, Broun appeared at a
church-sponsored event and claimed that the theories of evolution and the Big
Bang were "lies straight from the pit of hell."
Rhetoric like that might sit well
with Broun's largely rural district, but he'll have a harder time making a
similar case to cosmopolitan Atlanta
residents. Broun’s nomination wouldn’t exactly guarantee a win for Nunn, but it
could give her a powerful advantage with voters who are disinclined to go for
Broun’s tea party leanings.
Meanwhile, Carter’s greatest
chance at a win doesn’t just come from his own experience and endorsements from
other politicians, but from weaknesses on his opponent’s part. Since 2010, Deal
has been the subject of federal probes looking into possibly criminal misuse of
his campaign funds during the 2010 gubernatorial election. If anything comes of
the probe in the coming months, it could spell disaster for Deal and good news
for Carter.
Even if Carter tries and fails
against Deal this year, he’ll have positioned himself into a good place for
2018. As a Democrat who gave a good fight to an incumbent Republican, he’ll be
able to make a strong case for his nomination once again, and since Georgia only
allows two terms per governor, he won’t have to face another incumbent. And by
then, Carter will have benefited even more from Georgia’s shifting demographics.
Jimmy Carter
Jimmy
Carter was the president for the Jimmy
Carter administration, an honorary co-chairman for the Millennium Promise, is the co-founder & trustee for the Carter Center, a member of the Clinton Global Initiative, and his grandson
is Jason Carter.
Note: Jason Carter is Jimmy Carter’s grandson, a trustee at
the Carter Center, a Georgia Senate senator, and the candidate for the 2014 Jason Carter (GA) gubernatorial
campaign.
Foundation
to Promote Open Society was a funder for the Millennium Promise, and the Carnegie Endowment for International
Peace (think tank).
George
Soros was the chairman for the Foundation
to Promote Open Society, and is a member of the Clinton Global Initiative.
Carnegie
Endowment for International Peace (think
tank) was a funder for the Nuclear
Threat Initiative (think tank).
Sam
Nunn is a co-chairman & CEO for the Nuclear Threat Initiative (think tank), and Michelle Nunn’s father.
Michelle
Nunn is Sam Nunn’s daughter, and
the candidate for the 2014 Michelle Nunn
Senate campaign.
Jessica Tuchman Mathews is a director
at the Nuclear Threat Initiative (think
tank), the president of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
(think tank), a director at the American Friends of Bilderberg
(think tank), and a 2008 Bilderberg conference participant (think tank).
Ed Griffin’s interview with
Norman Dodd in 1982
(The investigation into the
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace uncovered the plans for population
control by involving the United
States in war)
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