GOP Poised to Retake Senate as Disillusioned Democrats
Depart
Monday, 20 Jan 2014 10:36 AM
By Todd Beamon
Several congressional retirements
and a number of vulnerable Democrats seeking re-election may give the
Republicans a clear shot at regaining the Senate in this year's November
elections.
"There's trouble in paradise
for Democrats," Bradley Blakeman, a former adviser to President George W.
Bush, told Newsmax in an interview. "Incumbent Democrats don’t like their
chances in 2014.
"They've had enough of Washington," said Blakeman, who lectures on politics
and public policy at Georgetown
University. "They
have a record that they would have to defend and a president that they would
have to defend.
"I don't like the Democrats'
chances if I were a Democrat. Democrats would not only lose House seats, but
they're also very much in danger of losing the Senate."
So far, 24 members of Congress
have said this year will be their last on Capitol Hill, with Republican Sen.
Tom Coburn being the latest to announce he was calling it quits. He said on
Thursday last week that he would not complete the last two years of his term
because of illness.
Coburn said he was battling a
strong recurrence of cancer but did not say that he was resigning because of
the illness.
Coburn, whose term ends in 2016,
joined seven other senators who are retiring. They are Democrat Sens. Max
Baucus of Montana and Carl Levin of Michigan, with six terms each; Tom Harkin of Iowa and Jay Rockefeller of West
Virginia, each with five terms in the upper chamber, and
three-termer Tim Johnson of South
Dakota. On the Republican side, Coburn is joining
fellow two-term Sen. Saxby Chambliss of Georgia,
and first-term Sen. Mike Johanns of Nebraska.
"Being in the House of
Representatives, and frequently the Senate, is not the job it once was,"
political analyst and pollster Doug Schoen told Newsmax in an interview.
"People don't want to be in a body that is dysfunctional, where the
ability to make decisions is limited to the leadership — and where legislative
results are a precious few."
The increasing demands of
fundraising, as well as excessive travel and time spent away from families, are
also taking their toll on Congress members.
"The day of the citizen
legislator doing what's right at a time when over half of the House and the
Senate are millionaires is sadly long since gone," Schoen said.
To re-take the House, Democrats
need 17 seats, which political observers tell Newsmax is not likely to happen,
keeping the GOP in control of the lower chamber.
But the retirements — coupled with
widespread dissatisfaction with President Barack Obama's leadership in the
White House and his abysmal Obamacare law — have created a bonanza for
Republicans in the Senate.
The GOP only needs six seats to
wrest control from a Democratic Party that was swept into power in the upper
chamber in the 2010 elections.
Four Senate Democrats seeking
re-election in heavily Republican states also make ripe pickings for the party
this fall, observers say.
"Democrats have already
played themselves out of a House majority with key retirements in
Republican-leaning districts," Republican National Committee Chairman
Reince Priebus told Newsmax in a statement. "Democrats made the path to a
Republican Senate majority much easier with retirements in South
Dakota, Montana, and West Virginia — all
states that Mitt Romney carried by a comfortable margin.
"Republican retirements, on
the other hand, are largely from Republican-leaning areas.
"But let’s not forget why this
is all happening and why the retirements are coming down the way they are: It
is because President Barack Obama and his healthcare law are such a political
liability for Democrats on the ballot in 2014 and they’re headed for the
hills,” Priebus said.
Of particular note are the four
races involving red-state Democrats seeking re-election: Sen. Kay Hagen of
North Carolina, who is working to beat back five GOP challengers; Mark Pryor in
Arkansas, who is battling freshman Rep. Tom Cotton; Mary Landrieu in Louisiana,
whose biggest challenger is Rep. Bill Cassidy; and Mark Begich in Alaska, who
has three Republicans vying to challenge him, including Lt. Gov. Mead
Treadwell.
"It's a very good map for
Republicans," said Kyle Kondik a political analyst for the University of Virginia’s
Center for Politics in Charlottesville.
"They've got a good chance to add seats, maybe even win the
majority."
Republicans will also benefit from
a generally lower voter turnout at midterm.
"What Democrats are worried
about is that their voters are more likely to come out in presidential races
and sit out midterms," Kondik said.
Blakeman referenced a report last
year by David Wasserman of The Cook Political Report, saying that those voting
at midterm have become older, whiter, less transient than younger voters and
more Republican.
"Yes, Republicans have to
work hard to get out the vote, but if you look at historically who comes out,
they've got an advantage there, too," Blakeman said.
But victory is not assured — and
the GOP has its own set of problems, including disunity and strong challenges
from Republicans within the tea party ranks.
"Everybody knows that they
oppose the president's policies," Schoen said of the Republican Party,
"but with their own level of support at 22 percent in the latest Gallup polls, the GOP's
at a record low.
"Unless they offer people a
positive reason to vote, they’re not going to maximize their appeal," he
said.
"The Republicans need to come
out swinging," Blakeman advised. "It's not enough to be against
something; you have to stand for something."
Regarding the tea party,
candidates are challenging established Republicans in several in primaries this
year: Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is facing Kentucky businessman Matt
Bevin; Minority Whip John Cornyn is squaring off against Rep. Steve Stockman
and six other GOP candidates in Texas; and longtime Sen. Lindsey Graham faces
four tea party challengers, including state Sen. Lee Bright, in South Carolina.
"Republicans have a problem
with the tea party," Blakeman told Newsmax.
While its grassroots efforts
helped send Rand Paul of Kentucky and Ron
Johnson of Wisconsin to Capitol Hill in 2010,
tea party-party backed candidates lost in five states two years later: Nevada, Colorado, Delaware, Indiana, and Missouri.
"They fielded bad candidates
in the name of the tea party and cost Republicans five seats," Blakeman
said. "Unless the Republicans can get a handle on the tea party, the
Democrats could snatch victory away.
"There's nothing wrong with
the tea party, as long as they play by the rules of the Republican Party,"
he added. "If you're going to play as a Republican, play as a Republican.
"Isn't it better to have a
Republican in there who you agree with seven out of 10 times than have a
Democrat in there who you don't agree at all with?"
That's why it is critical for the
GOP to field winning candidates, the observers told Newsmax.
"It just depends on which
candidates get nominated," Kondik said. "If there are poor candidates
nominated, like there were in 2010 and 2012, it's possible that the Republicans
won't maximize the number of seats they could win.
"And if they don’t, they're
going to have a hard time in the Senate."
But perhaps most importantly, the
Republican Party must develop and execute a thoughtful approach in their Senate
contests, Blakeman said.
"We've got to think
strategically, and we've got to act strategically," he said. "The
mission is the same: It's all about the Senate. The issues are pretty-much
determined, but generally speaking, it's going to turn on national
issues."
Those are the economy and the
Affordable Care Act, particularly in races with no incumbent — Republican or
Democrat, Blakeman said.
"You have to remind the
people of why is there a retirement: It's because the Democrats could not stand
with the president — and, most importantly, because he could stand on his own
record," he said. "The Democrats had the ability to lead, and they
failed.
"Obamacare has become an
economic issue, because it controls one-sixth of our economy, but it is also an
issue of leadership in and taking our country in the wrong direction.
"If Republicans stick to the
mantra of tying Obamacare to the economy and the issue of leadership and the
need to have a check-and-balance on the president — that will resonate."
Schoen called for a new
"Contract With America," referencing the GOP plan written by former
House Speaker Newt Gingrich and former House Majority Leader Dick Armey during
the 1994 congressional races.
"They need a positive agenda
of what they're going to do to restore American competitiveness at home and
abroad," he told Newsmax. "They need a jobs agenda. They need an
economic-growth agenda — and they need an agenda to unify the country."
A new "contract" would
give the Republicans "an agenda for the party," Schoen added.
"That gives them the chance to unify the party around common ideas and
common values that will stimulate the economy and create jobs.
"Then, and only then, do you
have a chance to maximize your appeal and maximize the number of seats you
win."
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