Tuesday, January 28, 2014

Kagan: US Withdrawal from Afghanistan Will Mean 'Victory for al-Qaida' Now!



Kagan: US Withdrawal from Afghanistan Will Mean 'Victory for al-Qaida' Now!
Tuesday, 28 Jan 2014 10:25 AM
By Melissa Clyne
America’s safety is directly tied to keeping al-Qaida from gaining a foothold in Afghanistan, an impossible feat without "massive infusions of international support," according to Fred Kagan, director of the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute.

Writing Monday in a Wall Street Journal op-ed piece, Kagan said it’s more crucial than ever for the U.S. to leave boots on the ground in Afghanistan, despite claims by Afghan President Hamid Karzai about "American abuses" or his refusal to sign a security agreement that would "give legal basis to continued U.S. presence" beyond the scheduled NATO military withdrawal at the end of this year.

Karzai, according to Kagan, is nothing more than a "jaded politician fading gracelessly from the scene," who has zero credibility with the Afghan people.

Karzai's refusal to sign the Bilateral Security Agreement – a pact providing for thousands of troops to remain in the country to help train Afghan forces – has virtually no support among the Afghan people or its future leaders, according to Kagan.

"On the contrary, the gathering of influential elders and leaders [Karzai] convened in November to consider the Bilateral Security Agreement emphatically endorsed it and called on him to sign it quickly," he said. "Almost every major candidate running to succeed Mr. Karzai has supported signing the agreement. Advertisements are running on Afghan television stations calling on Mr. Karzai to sign.

"He does not speak for them," Kagan added. "And in a few months he will not be leading them.”

Kagan strongly disagrees with those, including White House adviser Douglas Lute, who say leaving Afghanistan is in America’s best interest because it is a losing, or lost, battle. But the facts don’t support that theory, according to Kagan, who notes that since Obama ordered 30,000 more troops into Afghanistan in the 2009 surge the Taliban has failed to reestablish its pre-surge power. He also notes that in a country of 32 million people, the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) has gone from fewer than 100,000 members, equipped only with rifles and pickup trucks, to more than 350,000 with "increasingly modern vehicles, artillery and even its own helicopter support."

"Al-Qaida leadership remains battered but defiant (and still operational) in Pakistan despite Osama bin Laden's death,” he wrote.

"The Afghan National Security Forces are enormously larger and more competent than they were when Obama took office, but they are still unable to function independently against an insurgency that remains lethal and determined.

"It is preparing for its first peaceful transition of power in many decades. It is impossible to argue for withdrawal on the grounds that Afghanistan no longer needs help," he added, noting that abandoning Afghanistan now would allow a “lethal foe”" to close in on Kabul, the nation’s capital and home to an international airport.

“Withdrawal from Afghanistan, whether financial or military or both, will be a defeat for the U.S. and a victory for al-Qaida,” Kagan concluded. "It really is that simple."

Fred Kagan
Frederick W. Kagan was the Iraq military strategy adviser for the George W. Bush administration, a professor of military history at the U.S. Military Academy, is a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute (think tank), and his brother is Robert Kagan.

Note: Robert Kagan is Frederick W. Kagan’s brother, was a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (think tank), a transatlantic fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States (think tank), and a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution (think tank).
Marc Grossman was a trustee at the German Marshall Fund of the United States (think tank), and a special representative for Afghanistan & Pakistan.
German Marshall Fund of the United States (think tank) was a funder for the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (think tank).
Foundation to Promote Open Society was a funder for the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (think tank), and the Brookings Institution (think tank).
George Soros was the chairman for the Foundation to Promote Open Society, and is a board member for the International Crisis Group.
Jessica Tuchman Mathews is a board member for the International Crisis Group, the president of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (think tank), a director at the American Friends of Bilderberg (think tank), was an honorary trustee at the Brookings Institution (think tank), and a 2008 Bilderberg conference participant (think tank).
Ed Griffin’s interview with Norman Dodd in 1982
(The investigation into the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace uncovered the plans for population control by involving the United States in war)
Thomas R. Pickering is a co-chair for the International Crisis Group, a distinguished fellow at the Brookings Institution (think tank), and was the chairman of the review board that investigated the 2012 attack on U.S. consulate in Benghazi, Libya in 2013.
J. Christopher Stevens was killed in the 2012 attack on U.S. consulate in Benghazi, Libya, and the U.S. ambassador for Libya.
Ivo H. Daalder was a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution (think tank), and is the NATO U.S. permanent representative.





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