Sunday, April 27, 2014

Albert R. Hunt: Obama's Fading Dream of a Foreign Policy Legacy



Albert R. Hunt: Obama's Fading Dream of a Foreign Policy Legacy

President Barack Obama addresses the Young Southeast Asian Leadership Initiative Town Hall at the University of Malaya in Kuala Lumpur on April 27.
Sunday, 27 Apr 2014 11:22 AM
President Barack Obama envisioned building a foreign-policy legacy in his second term: a nuclear deal with sanction-strapped Iran, an end to U.S. involvement in conflicts overseas, and a successful pivot to Asia, including a trans-Pacific trade pact.

Fifteen months after his second inaugural, those goals look more problematic, and Syria's Bashar Assad and Russia's Vladimir Putin have created new crises. Dashed foreign-policy dreams aren't unique to this second-term president: Dwight D. Eisenhower had to contend with the downing of a spy plane by the Soviet Union, the Iran-contra scandal bedeviled Ronald Reagan, and the Iraq War turned into a nightmare in George W. Bush's second term.

Obama's woes are complicated by a sense — denied by the White House — of American disengagement. "The perception of American withdrawal is palpable," says Stephen Hadley, the national security adviser to George W. Bush.

"The Europeans and the Gulf states think that we're leaving," says Bill Cohen, who served as defense secretary under President Bill Clinton. "The Asian countries think we're not coming."

Moreover, the president is caught in a contradictory, and unfair, squeeze. On issues such as Syria and Russia, he's depicted as insufficiently aggressive or tough. At the same time, the American public, turned off by the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, wants no part of more aggressive foreign entanglements. Even some Republicans are taking cues from Senator Rand Paul's quasi-isolationists stance.

Some of the specifics seem bleak and intractable. The Syrian civil war is deteriorating, affecting the entire region, and the dictator, Assad, is getting stronger, even as the administration says he must leave power. Despite the valiant efforts of Secretary of State John Kerry, the Israeli-Palestinian peace process is barely on life support.

U.S. officials acknowledge they lack a good read on Putin's intentions. There is a good case to be made that Obama's policies toward Russia are smart in the long run. Yet like every president since Harry Truman, there's little Obama can do to stop Russian aggressiveness in the short term.

Even the two big areas where major successes are possible this year, an Iranian nuclear deal and sweeping trade agreements, are fraught with political complications.

Both sides want a nuclear agreement, Obama for security and legacy reasons, the Iranians for economic and political ones. Important details remain, informed sources say, but the negotiators have made progress, and there's even some hope of an accord before an interim agreement expires July 20.

If that happens, there will be two critical questions: Although Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu won't be pleased, and his government will express strong reservations, will the Israelis go all out to persuade Congress to sabotage the deal? Then, will two top Democrats — Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Robert Menendez and New York Senator Charles Schumer — join Republicans in trying to thwart a deal?

At that point, would Obama be willing to expend enormous political capital by telling the country, as well Congress, that failure to accept the deal means a nuclear-armed Iran or war?

The other conceivable victory would be obtaining so-called fast-track negotiating authority for trade agreements, followed by the signing of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which would be the biggest trade deal in U.S. history.

Obama's problem is his own party. A majority of House Democrats oppose the pacts under consideration, and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid has signaled little interest in bringing any agreements to a vote this year. The White House, already worried about the prospect of Republican control of the Senate in Obama's final two years, has difficult calculations to weigh.

The president returns Tuesday from a trip to Asia, where his pivot policy had alienated China without assuaging U.S. allies. When he lands at Andrews Air Force Base, he may feel that even the recalcitrant and partisan Congress isn't any messier than this uninviting global landscape.

Albert R. Hunt
Al Hunt is the executive editor for Washington for Bloomberg News, and married to Judy Woodruff.

Note: Bloomberg News is a division of Bloomberg LP.
Michael R. Bloomberg is the founder of Bloomberg LP, the founder of the Bloomberg Family Foundation, was a benefactor for the Harlem Children's Zone, and a donor for the Robin Hood Foundation.
George Soros was a benefactor for the Harlem Children's Zone, and the chairman for the Foundation to Promote Open Society.
Foundation to Promote Open Society was a funder for the Harlem Children's Zone, the Robin Hood Foundation, the Urban Institute (think tank), the Aspen Institute (think tank), the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (think tank), and the Brookings Institution (think tank).
Judy Woodruff is a trustee at the Urban Institute (think tank), married to Al Hunt, and was an anchor at CNN.
Walter Isaacson was the chairman & CEO for CNN, is a director at the Bloomberg Family Foundation, the president & CEO for the Aspen Institute (think tank).
Ted Turner is the founder of CNN, and a co-chairman for the Nuclear Threat Initiative (think tank).
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (think tank) was a funder for the Nuclear Threat Initiative (think tank).
Jessica Tuchman Mathews is a director at the Nuclear Threat Initiative (think tank), the president of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (think tank), a director at the American Friends of Bilderberg (think tank), was an honorary trustee at the Brookings Institution (think tank), and a 2008 Bilderberg conference participant (think tank).
Ed Griffin’s interview with Norman Dodd in 1982
(The investigation into the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace uncovered the plans for population control by involving the United States in war)
Cameron F. Kerry is a fellow at the Brookings Institution (think tank), and John F. Kerry’s brother.
Teresa Heinz Kerry is an honorary trustee at the Brookings Institution (think tank), and married to John F. Kerry.
John F. Kerry is Cameron F. Kerry’s brother, married to Teresa Heinz Kerry, and the secretary at the U.S. Department of State for the Barack Obama administration.
Martin S. Indyk was the assistant secretary for the U.S. Department of State, a VP & director of the Foreign Policy Program for the Brookings Institution (think tank), a U.S. ambassador for Israel, is a Middle East peace envoy for the U.S. Department of State, and a founding director at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy.
Saban Center for Middle East Policy is a policy center at the Brookings Institution (think tank).
Haim Saban is a benefactor at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy, a trustee at the Brookings Institution (think tank), and a friend of Shimon Peres.
Shimon Peres is a friend of Haim Saban, and the president of Israel.
Benjamin Netanyahu is the prime minister for Israel.
Daniel B. Shapiro is the U.S. ambassador for Israel, and was Dianne Feinstein’s legislative assistant.
Dianne Feinstein’s legislative assistant was Daniel B. Shapiro, is a U.S. Senate senator, and married to Richard C. Blum.
Richard C. Blum is married to Dianne Feinstein, and an honorary trustee at the Brookings Institution (think tank).
Saban Center for Middle East Policy is a policy center at the Brookings Institution (think tank).
Kenneth M. Pollack was a senior fellow, Middle East policy for the Brookings Institution (think tank), is a senior fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy, and is married to Andrea Koppel.
Andrea Koppel is married to Kenneth M. Pollack, and was a correspondent for CNN.
Judy Woodruff was an anchor at CNN, is a trustee at the Urban Institute (think tank), and married to Al Hunt.
Al Hunt is married to Judy Woodruff, and the executive editor for Washington for Bloomberg News.
Bloomberg News is a division of Bloomberg LP.


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