Standard and Poor's Downgrades Russia's Credit Rating
by Chriss W. Street 25 Apr 2014
Standard & Poor’s
downgraded Russia’s credit rating to BBB-, just one
notch above junk, and warned that the nation faced a further downgrade in the
event of tighter financial sanctions by members of the North Atlantic Treaty
Organization (NATO). To prevent a
big drop in the exchange rate of their ruble currency, Russia’s
central bank increased its benchmark interest rate to 7.5% in an effort to trim
inflation.
The Central Bank of Russia raised
the rate it loans to the nation’s bank by .5% following the S&P downgrade.
The last time the country’s monetary authorities raised rates was in March--to
7% from 5.5%--at the start of the Ukraine crisis.
Investors concerned about the
Ukrainian crisis and sanctions
pulled $64 billion out of Russia
in the first three months of 2014, according to S&P. Russia’s finance
ministry acknowledged this week that the economy could fall into a recession in
the second quarter.
The Russian Central Bank’s website
cites Chair Elvira Nabiullina saying that "the adopted decision on the key
rate would ensure a decline in inflation to no more than 6.0% by the end of
2014 and help to maintain the appropriate balance of inflation risks and the
risks of further economic slowdown.”
The downgrade and interest rate
rise came as Ukraine’s
military crackdown on pro-Russian rebels in eastern Ukraine
extended into a second day and concerns mounted internationally over the
possibility of an invasion by the 40,000 Russian troops massed on Ukraine’s
eastern border.
The Central Bank issued a downbeat
assessment of the country’s economic prospects, noting that “the uncertainty of
the foreign policy situation” was having a “negative impact” on output and
investment.
Inflation is a top concern for
policymakers as Russians suffered during previous episodes of currency
devaluation and price increases in 1997-98 and 2008-09. The ruble has devalued
by 9% so far this year, and core inflation is running 1% above the nation’s
stated target objective of 5%.
On April 24th, U.S. Secretary of
State John Kerry complained that Russia’s activities in eastern Ukraine were a “gross intimidation”
to actively subvert the democratic process in its neighbor. “Russia is
trying to achieve through the barrel of the gun and through the force of the
mob what could not be achieved in any other way,” he said. While stopping short
of announcing new sanctions, Secretary Kerry said the world was ready to act if
Moscow did not take steps to de-escalate a
crisis that Russia was itself
stoking by ordering large-scale military exercises on the border of Ukraine earlier
in the day.
From Tokyo
Thursday, President Barack Obama accused Russia
of failing to abide by the Geneva
agreement, and he warned that new sanctions were already “teed up.”
The war of words between Moscow and Kiev intensified
as Russian President Vladimir Putin warned Ukraine
there would be “consequences” for using its army “against its own people.” Oleksandr Turchynov, Ukraine’s
acting president, accused Russia
of “coordinating and supporting terrorist killers.”
Russia
Thomas R.
Pickering was a U.S.
ambassador for Russia,
a trustee at the Carnegie Corporation of
New York, a distinguished fellow at the Brookings Institution (think tank).
Note: Pedro Aspe was a
trustee at the Carnegie Corporation of
New York, and a director at McGraw
Hill Financial Inc.
Kurt
L. Schmoke is a trustee at the Carnegie
Corporation of New York, and a director at McGraw Hill Financial Inc.
Standard &
Poor's is a subsidiary of McGraw
Hill Financial Inc.
Edward B. Rust Jr.
is a director at McGraw Hill Financial Inc.,
and a trustee at the Committee for
Economic Development.
Richard H. Davis
is a trustee at the Committee for
Economic Development, and a managing director at Davis Manafort.
Viktor F.
Yanukovich is a Davis Manafort client,
and was the president of the Ukraine.
John
J. DeGioia is a trustee at the Carnegie
Corporation of New York, and a trustee at the Committee for Economic Development.
Foundation
to Promote Open Society was a funder for the Committee for Economic Development, and the Brookings Institution (think tank).
George Soros
was the chairman for the Foundation to Promote Open Society, and a board
member of the International Crisis Group.
Igor
S. Ivanov was a board member of the International
Crisis Group, and a minister of foreign affairs for Russia.
Yegor
Gaidar was a board member of the International
Crisis Group, and a prime minister for Russia.
Carnegie
Corporation of New York was a funder for the Brookings Institution (think tank).
Carlos
Pascual was the VP for the Brookings
Institution (think tank), and a U.S.
ambassador for the Ukraine.
Steven
Pifer was a senior fellow at the Brookings
Institution (think tank), and a U.S.
ambassador for the Ukraine.
Ivo
H. Daalder was a senior fellow at the Brookings
Institution (think tank), and a U.S. permanent representative for NATO.
John
R. Allen is a fellow at the Brookings
Institution (think tank), and was the supreme allied commander Europe nominee for NATO.
Lois Dickson
Fitt was a guest scholar at the Brookings
Institution (think tank), a director at McGraw Hill Financial Inc., and Susan E. Rice’s mother.
Standard &
Poor's is a subsidiary of McGraw
Hill Financial Inc.
Susan
E. Rice was a senior fellow at the Brookings
Institution (think tank), is Lois
Dickson Fitt’s daughter, and the White House national security adviser for
the Barack Obama administration.
Cameron F. Kerry
is a fellow at the Brookings Institution
(think tank), and John F. Kerry’s
brother.
Teresa Heinz
Kerry is an honorary trustee at the Brookings
Institution (think tank), married to John
F. Kerry, and was married to H. John
Heinz III.
John
F. Kerry is Cameron F. Kerry’s
brother, married to Teresa Heinz Kerry,
and the secretary at the U.S. Department
of State for the Barack Obama
administration.
H. John Heinz III
was married to Teresa Heinz Kerry,
and the heir to the H.J. Heinz Co.
D. Edward I.
Smyth was the SVP for the H.J. Heinz
Co., and is the EVP for the McGraw
Hill Financial Inc.
Standard &
Poor's is a subsidiary of McGraw
Hill Financial Inc.
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